Written by Yasen Georgiev and Dragomir Belchev, EPI – EECFA Bulgaria
Physical restrictions
There is no curfew or full lockdown, but there are some physical restrictions most important of which are:
Foreign nationals are not allowed to enter Bulgaria (with some exceptions);
Introduction of checkpoints at the entry and exit roads of the largest cities (regional centers);
All places for public access for gathering of people are closed (restaurants, malls, kindergartens, schools, parks, etc.);
14-day quarantine for all Bulgarians arriving from abroad is mandatory.
All employers, depending on the specifics and capabilities, should introduce a remote work for their employees. If it is not possible, employers organize enhanced anti-epidemic measures on the workplace.
The state of emergency, firstly announced on March 13, along with restrictive measures regarding COVID 19, were extended to May 13, 2020.
Construction works
According to the Association of Construction Entrepreneurs, there are no frozen residential construction sites, but it is hard to imagine that the work is going to continue with the same volumes. Additionally, obtaining construction permits is becoming increasingly difficult despite the effort of municipalities to introduce e-services.
Construction works of largest infrastructure projects continue at present, but with slower pace since there are difficulties in deliveries of construction materials. Delays are expected on the Bulgarian part of ‘TurkStream’ due to the obligatory 14-day quarantine for foreign workers who are employed on the site.
We are planning to issue the new EECFA Bulgaria Construction Forecast Report on 29 June 2020. Sample report and order
Anticovid measures in construction
There are no specific anticovid measures regarding the construction sector. Most important current economic measures implemented by the government include:
The government will support companies with proven impact from the epidemic by covering 60% of the employees’ wages for up to three months. The initial aid package has been set at approximately €2.3bln, a sum which Prime Minister Boyko Borissov predicts may be insufficient. The list of eligible sectors was firstly narrowed to tourism and catering, later on extended to manufacturing industries. However, this scheme is not meant for companies that cannot prove direct COVID implications.
The deadline for annual financial statements and payment of corporate taxes is postponed from end-March to end-June (estimated effect of BGN 800mn/EUR 400mn within the year).
Possibility for companies and individuals to postpone loan and interest payments for 6 months.
Interest-free loans granted by the state-owned Bulgarian Development Bank directed to individuals, which are in difficult financial situation as a result of the COVID 19 restrictions.
Interest-free loans are also planned for companies, but conditions are not clear yet.
The 2019 Winter EECFA Construction Forecast Report has been released. It can be purchased, and a sample report can be viewed at www.eecfa.com. EECFA (Eastern European Construction Forecasting Association) conducts research on the construction markets of 8 Eastern-European countries.
Southeast Europe
Building construction market of the Balkan countries of EECFA is in prosperity phase. In the 2016-2019 period the market size expanded by 30%. We think that the current cycle is getting closer to the peak and for the upcoming 2 years we foresee a deceleration. One extreme is Serbia’s building construction market. It well outperformed the rest of the countries in the past 4 years and hardly sees any further expansion. As we are getting closer to the end of the current EU programming period, the civil engineering submarket is projected to contribute more positively to total construction market growth.
Bulgaria. Construction output in Bulgaria continues its recovery as both building and civil constructions are contributing. Residential construction is boosted by increasing real wages and low interest rates on housing loans which make buying a home more and more affordable. Persistent demand for contemporary office premises, along with the ongoing expansion of industrial and warehousing projects, will likely continue to be a tailwind for non-residential construction in 2019-2021. Civil engineering construction is forecasted to continue its upward trend in line with EU fund absorption. Growth here in the upcoming years will be fuelled by large transport infrastructure projects and the public utility sector. Total construction output is set to grow by 8.7% in 2019, and to add another 6.5% in both 2020 and 2021.
Croatia. Construction in Croatia is in transition. Some sectors are reaching the limits of catch-up growth. Others are only now beginning to benefit from it. While the direction and inevitability of this transition is clear, the timing is less so, with each sector likely to follow its own, unique path. This said, certain factors, among them emigration, the slowness of key reforms (especially regarding the judiciary), rising construction costs, the government’s ability to secure EU and other official funds and increased international competition for the tourists on which, for better or worse, Croatia’s economy relies, will affect all construction sectors. The outlook is by no means grim. Croatia is not nearly done with its transition, certainly not as far as construction is concerned. Many opportunities remain.
Romania. Romania’s construction subsectors have seen different trends. Residential and non-residential have been on a growth path for several years, while civil engineering has been declining since 2015. Residential construction should remain the main contributor to growth in the forecast period on the back of increased income and high demand for new construction, though regulatory and tax changes have slowed down the subsector. Romania’s economic growth, one of the strongest in the EU, and increased public consumption are feeding the need for new non-residential construction; however, increased skilled labour shortages and costs keep the segment in check, hindering development. For civil engineering, increased construction costs, elections and government changes counter much of the potential growth. Overall, construction across Romania is predicted to expand by 6.4% in 2019 but switch to a lower gear in both 2020 and 2021.
Written by Yasen Georgiev and Dragomir Belchev, EPI – EECFA Bulgaria
Bulgaria’s non-residential construction is set to grow in 2019 and 2020. The positive figures in the latest EECFA Bulgaria Construction Forecast Report are backed by, among others, the accelerated growth in office construction which is to witness the completion of many big projects in 2019-2021. The question is not on whether their delivery will impact the segment, but on how.
As shown by the 2019 Summer EECFA Bulgaria Construction Forecast Report (which can be purchased here), non-residential construction in the country is to be on a growth path in 2019 and 2020, a major driver being office construction. After bouncing back in 2017, and keeping the momentum in 2018, it is relishing a real revival and is predicted to increase by over 10% on average in 2019-2021.
Office-related construction
is mainly concentrated in Sofia where all major projects are located. The city
is an attractive destination for companies that benefit from a favorable mix of
skilled young population, competitive labor costs and rent levels to establish
and expand in spheres linked to Information Technology, business process
outsourcing and shared services. Companies in these sectors are active in
relocations, often driven by their expansion plans and/or the rising preference
of their employees for modern office premises.
Existing office space in Sofia totaled 2mln sqm at the end of 2018. In H1 2019 it witnessed the delivery of 100 000sqm and now looks forward to another 400 000sqm with an expected completion till 2021.
These dynamics are fueled by the peak in permitted office space registered in H2 2018 – an all-time high performance that by far exceeded the pre-crisis record of H1 2008 (265 065sqm).
In H1 2019 another 129 545sqm were permitted, which is still a rise of more than 90% y-o-y. It remains to be seen whether this data on permitted floor space will translate into the size of started office premises and, later on, in the number and volume of completed ones. H2 2015 recorded the peak in terms of started office floor space so far and if it is to be outperformed, H2 2019 and H1 2020 seem to be the perfect timing.
Against the backdrop of the
latest development, the question is not on whether the delivery of all projects
in the active pipeline will impact the segment, but on how. Demand is awaited to
see logical limitations in the future because of skilled labor shortage being on
the rise, the increased application of AI solutions and the changing behavior
of office employees in favor of more flexible and remote work.
This altogether should keep the present rent levels in Sofia, or even put them under pressure. Rents did not considerably change over the last years and even now continue to be among the lowest in the CEE region. Thus, provided that all projects are delivered, office yields will be questioned. This scenario seems increasingly possible unless a new wave of major restructuring and cost-cutting takes place in countries with higher labor costs.
On
24 June 2019, the 2019 Summer EECFA Construction Forecast Report up to 2021 was
published. Full reports can be purchased, and a sample report can be viewed at www.eecfa.com. EECFA (Eastern European
Construction Forecasting Association) conducts research on the construction
markets of 8 Eastern-European countries.
Southeast Europe
Good years are predicted to continue in the construction markets of Eastern and Western Balkan countries of EECFA. Altogether around 15% cumulated real growth is foreseen for the region as a whole in 2019-2021. The annual pace of growth, however, is gradually decelerating on the forecast horizon. In this upcoming period civil engineering is expected to outperform building construction in all countries, except for Romania.
click to enlarge
Bulgaria’s construction output remains on a growth path since both building construction and civil engineering continue to expand. Residential construction is still an attractive investment due to increasing profitability on the back of a positive change in disposable income and low interest rates. Growth in non-residential construction is backed by the acceleration in office segment and a stable performance in manufacturing and warehousing. Civil engineering is to be driven by road and public utility segments, while major projects in railway construction are struggling to start. Construction output is projected to grow by 5% in 2019 and 4% in 2020. The end of the EU programming period of 2014-2020 will likely give and additional boost of 7% in 2021.
Construction in Croatia is at a crossroads. Some sectors that have shown strong catch-up growth will soon slow. Others, so far less favored, will soon benefit from such growth. The country is also at a crossroads in another sense. An aging population, continued emigration, rising construction costs and increased international competition for tourists will threaten a number of construction sectors unless wise political choices are made. All in all, though, while the forecast for the Croatian construction industry as a whole is not as sunny as it once was and while patches of cloud have begun to appear in some places, other areas are expected to enjoy significantly more favorable conditions than in the past.
Romania’s construction is set to grow by 6% in 2019. Residential construction, after a remarkable growth between 2016 and 2018, might be hindered by legal and policy changes. Despite some concerns over the contrary, residential activity is still predicted to remain one of the main drivers of the Romanian construction market, at least until 2020. Demand remains high for most types of non-residential construction as well. But talent shortages and higher operating costs would, likewise, limit the growth of the segment. Of notable interest is the expected growth in civil engineering segments which considerably dropped after 2015 but are to return to a positive trend with renewed interest due to availability of national and EU funding and increased public interest in the election years.
In Serbia the booming cycle is now encompassing practically all construction segments, with strong performance in both buildings and civil engineering. While residential and non-residential buildings were leading the growth in the previous period, civil engineering is expected to again take charge in 2019. With increased spending in road construction and major large-scale projects now underway in energy and railroad, there is a strong expansion of outputs in this forecast horizon. Although extensive growth in previous years already doubled outputs in many segments, particularly in buildings, there is yet more to come. Total construction output in 2021 will likely at least double the volumes from 2015.
Construction industry in Slovenia continues to grow fast, recording a second consecutive year of double-digit growth. Based on strong economic growth, easy access to credit and strong demand for residential housing, its foundation would remain strong also in 2020 unless a major external shock reversed the current optimism on the market. Even in such case, there are several large civil engineering projects, especially the construction of a new railway towards Port Koper that began in early 2019, that will induce growth in construction output for several years.
East
Europe
The East-European countries EECFA covers show a completely different picture from that of the Balkan. The cumulated growth expectation of the region is -1% for 2019-2021. Turkey’s construction market is in such trouble as previously predicted, and this drags down the whole region’s performance. On country level, only Turkey sees negative cumulated growth until 2021, while Russia is prognosticated to be moderately positive. And Ukraine can reach the highest growth rates. In each country civil engineering is forecast to perform better (less worse in case of Turkey) than building construction until 2021.
click to enlarge
In 2018 Russia’s construction output registered a higher-than-expected growth of 2.4%, thanks to the partial revision of construction statistics and the completion of major infrastructure projects related to the FIFA World Cup. In 2019, though, with the disappearance of these two growth factors, construction output is set to be near zero. Forecast for 2020-2021 is more optimistic (2.8%-3.3% per year) as economic growth is expected to accelerate and state funding for the industry will likely have a major push. Civil engineering and housing construction will enjoy most state funding directed to new road and railway projects, energy infrastructure and residential real estate developers.
In August 2018 the economy of Turkey trembled owing to the massive depreciation of Lira that greatly hit many sectors, especially construction. Building permits also dropped sharply last year, after historical peaks a year earlier, but completion of buildings in terms of floor area rose by 5%. This trend continues in 2019, but housing sales declined by 20% in the first five months, together with large decreases in real housing prices.Further, building material output registered a more than 20% drop within a year until May 2019. Construction companies experience a hard time and those active in civil engineering have decreasing workloads due to the presidential decree (issued in October 2018) not to tender new projects except for priority ones. Plus, the budget to central and local governments for projects this year is less than last year. Against this backdrop, recovery in the construction sector can only begin in 2021.
The Ukrainian construction industry has all the conditions for a sustainable growth in the future by an estimated 6.8% rise this year, a 3.6% increase in 2020 and a 7.2% growth in 2021. A positive trend is the systemic state support for the industry, including more transparent and clear rules of the game in the construction market, simplification of permits, and powerful investment support, especially in civil engineering. Hindering construction industry, and the economy as a whole, though, is the lack of financing. The slight drop in residential construction is offset by the growth of non-residential and civil engineering subsectors.
____________
Source
of data: EECFA Construction
Forecast Report, 2019 Summer
EECFA (Eastern European Construction Forecasting Association), conducting research on the construction markets of 8 Eastern-European countries, released its 2018 Winter Construction Forecast Reports on 5 December 2018. Key findings are summarized below. Full reports can be purchased, and a sample report can be viewed at www.eecfa.com.
In many previous forecast rounds we have argued for a soft-landing scenario in Turkey. However, the dramatic fashion of the currency depreciation in summer 2018 unearthed many structural problems of the construction industry and made us revise our forecast to an even more pessimistic one. Unlike the stop-and-go like reactions to previous crises, we tend to believe in a stop-and-stay scenario this time. In Russia, we are less pessimistic thanks to a recently announced governmental program expected to affect the market positively.
Optimism still prevails in the Eastern and Western Balkan countries of EECFA. For the region as a whole the new forecast sees just a little downward revision. However, on country level, the stories are different. Less optimism in Croatia and more optimism in Serbia and Slovenia compared to the previous forecast round. In Romania, the largest construction market of this region, the outlook of the building construction submarket has been adjusted downward.
Bulgaria. Construction output in Bulgaria is speeding up with an expected growth of 7.4% in 2018. Residential construction continues to expand on the back of increases in economic activity and real disposable income, and historically low interest rates on housing loans. Additionally, the non-residential segment is also predicted to grow driven mainly by office and industrial constructions. Civil engineering construction has continued its recovery path in 2018, Continue reading EECFA 2018 Winter Construction Forecast
Rises in employment and income in Bulgaria, combined with low interest rates both on deposits and housing loans, are pushing residential construction as well as the property market upwards. The rise in profit margin increasingly attracts investors in the sector. However, aging multi-family buildings and the growing number of uninhabited properties remain as major challenges ahead of the housing stock in the country.
Written by Yasen Georgiev and Dragomir Belchev, EPI – EECFA Bulgaria
Residential construction and the real estate market in Bulgaria continue to be in the focus of investors and developers. The turning point was in 2016 when the sector registered a growth of 31.1% and it is expected to increase in double-digit terms in the period up to 2019. These developments have a direct correlation with improved living conditions as in 2017 the Bulgarian GDP grew by 3.6%. According to European Commission forecasts, there are no signs for pessimism as they prognosticate a further growth of 3.8% in 2018 and 3.7% in 2019.
The economic development is accompanied by low rates of unemployment and an increased disposable income. Major cities in Bulgaria such as Sofia, Plovdiv, Varna and Burgas are getting more and more attractive, which leads to the concentration of the population and creates a strong demand in the residential sector. Consumer preferences are also changing in favour of quality properties (larger ones and with better location) that are lacking in the market. At the moment supply is still lagging behind, unable to catch up with demand. In H1 2018 completed newly-built residential buildings were 9.1% more than in the same period in 2017. In terms of dwellings, there is a drop of 10.3%, which is a proof of the completion of bigger-scale projects.
The Eastern European Construction Forecasting Association (EECFA) – the forecasting association conducting research on the construction markets of 8 Eastern European countries – has released its 2018 Summer Construction Forecast Reports up to 2020. The main findings of the reports are summarized below. The full reports can be purchased, and a sample report can be viewed at eecfa.com
Construction up to 2020 in ‘South-East Europe-5’ (Bulgaria, Croatia, Romania, Serbia, Slovenia)
The region is posting a strong economic growth which is fuelling building construction. Some of the region’s housing markets are seeing record-breaking results, so the first voices for overheating appeared. We think these markets are far from it, though. At the same time, construction labour shortage, due to economic migration from these countries to Western Europe, is one factor giving cause for concern in the future. With accelerating absorption of EU funds, civil engineering is expected to contribute positively to growth all the way on the forecast horizon.
Bulgaria
Construction output in Bulgaria continues its recovery and is expected to reach an 8.8% growth in 2018. The star performer is the residential construction segment, benefitting from improved employment and real disposable income, as well as the ongoing process of the concentration of population in big cities. Additionally, the steady economic development will increase investments in non-residential projects. Civil engineering construction is forecasted to contribute strongly in the next few years after EU fund absorption started catching up. Therefore, estimations for 2019 and 2020 are for an additional growth of 7.1% and 6.0%, respectively.
Croatia
Croatia’s construction output is likely to grow at a respectable rate until 2020 (by an estimated 2.2% in 2017 and a forecast 11.6%, 6.2% and 4.0% in 2018, 2019 and 2020, respectively). Particularly well performing sectors include hotel construction, education and health and certain civil engineering subsectors, especially railways. A global trade war, fallout from the Agrokor crisis and rapidly rising construction costs are threats to Croatia’s construction industry. And all are now significantly more likely to occur than they were at the time of EECFA’s 2017 Winter Report. But fortunately, none yet constitutes an imminent danger. In 2021 or soon thereafter growth will probably begin to tail off in a number of important sectors as Croatia’s catch-up phase gradually comes to an end, but exactly when and how this will occur is not yet clear.
Romania
The housing and non-residential segments are set to continue their excellent performance in 2018, and, in spite of an underwhelming performance in the civil engineering segment, the total growth of the construction sector in 2018 is forecasted to reach 7.1% (up from +6.8% in Winter 2017). As projects co-funded by the EU are starting to be implemented, Continue reading EECFA 2018 Summer Construction Forecast
EECFA (Eastern European Construction Forecasting Association) – the forecasting association conducting research on the construction markets of 8 Eastern-European countries – published its 2017 Winter Construction Forecast Reports on 4 December. A concise summary on the main findings is outlined in this article. Please consider that foreseen development stories are rather different for the 3 submarkets (residential, non-residential, civil engineering) of construction in the countries we cover. In Russia, for example, civil engineering is expected to drive the total market back to expansion. Unless you need only an impression about the total market, we kindly suggest consulting with our reports.
Construction outlook up to 2019 in South East Europe: the countries EECFA dubs ‘South East Europe-5’ are Bulgaria, Croatia, Romania, Serbia and Slovenia. The overall picture is still very optimistic, but the expansion rate of the total construction market has been revised a bit downward, mostly due to the worsened expectation in EU fund absorption on the forecast horizon. This affects largely the civil engineering submarket, where 9% cumulated growth is foreseen for 2018-2019 for the region as a whole. In a very favorable macro environment where money is cheap, building construction is set to continue to recover; with a 17% cumulated market growth predicted for the upcoming 2 years. Shortage of skilled labour in construction is a major constraint of a more rapid growth, though.
Bulgaria: the country is facing a 7% growth in total construction output in 2017 as EU funds of the new cycle are fuelling civil engineering construction which dragged down the whole sector in 2016. Thus, total construction output comes from a very low level; in 2016 it nosedived by 35.2% (compared to the forecasted 31.1%). In 2018, the construction sector is set to register a 5.6% increase (as opposed to the 6.4% forecasted earlier), while 2019 should bring a 5.7% rise (up from the +4.5% predicted formerly).
Croatia: the good news for construction growth in Croatia is the country’s increasing capacity to obtain EU funds, at which the current government seems to be getting better and better. Continued strong growth in GDP, private consumption, retail turnover and industrial production should also benefit construction. Total construction output growth is estimated to be 6.3% for 2017, which has been revised down from the 11.2% growth expected in summer due primarily to caution shown by buyers, bankers and developers in the residential segment and to delays in some government-led, civil-engineering projects. Continue reading EECFA 2017 Winter Construction Forecast and Revision
Demand for offices in Sofia is boosting a huge activity in office building and mixed-use projects, and growing land prices trigger the construction of higher and higher such buildings and office towers. The game of towers has generated a public debate on whether to designate zones where these buildings are to be concentrated.
Written by Yasen Georgiev and Dragomir Belchev, EPI – EECFA Bulgaria
In 2016 the Bulgarian economy registered a growth of 3.4%, driven mainly by increasing household consumption and export volumes. Forecast for 2017 and 2018 suggests that the country’s GDP will register a further expansion between 3% and 3.5%, reflecting the positive signs from the labor market and their implications on individual demand.
These trends support EECFA’s latest summer forecast for an increase in the overall construction market by more than 5% in 2017 and over 3% in 2018. Building construction is set to grow even at a higher pace, thus reaching an annual increase of around 8% for 2017-2019. Beside the accelerated growth of residential construction, it is the non-residential sub-sector that shows increased dynamics after a year of negative growth.
According to the EECFA 2017 Bulgaria summer report, office construction is expected to rise and reach an average growth of 4.7% over the 2017-2019 period. This forecast is supported not only by the announcement of a number of projects due to start in 2017-2018, but also by the increase in permitted floor spaces of office and administrative buildings in 2016 on an annual basis, as well as by the scale of started projects in Q12017 compared to Q12016.
In this regard, Sofia remains the most economically active city in the country. Despite the emerging demand for contemporary office space in secondary cities, in terms of floor space, 77% of all permitted office and administrative buildings in 2016 are located in the capital city, similarly to the share of started office and administrative buildings in Sofia, in a nationwide comparison accounting for 74%.
We have released our summer construction forecast on 16 June 2017 on Bulgaria, Croatia, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Slovenia, Turkey and Ukraine. This post intends to summarize the most important projections for these construction markets for the years 2017-2019. These are our main findings; for a deeper understanding, please consult our reports. You can contact us on eecfa.com.
Outlook for the EECFA regions
The highly optimistic outlook for South East Europe is maintained by EECFA. Leaving behind the transitory 2016, when the absorption of funds available in the new EU programming period (2014-2020) was still at a low level, the upcoming years are characterized by a bigger expansion of the construction market than that of GDP. Building construction is predicted to well outperform the total market, with a yearly average rate of 9% over the horizon. The small growth in the region’s total civil engineering market is attributed to the negative expectations in Romania.
Sideway moves, no further market expansion on the horizon are what we consider the most probable scenario for the 3 East European markets together. Turkey and Russia, being far the two biggest markets we cover in EECFA, is expected to show some similarities. In both countries our forecasts are moderately optimistic in the civil engineering market. While in the building construction market the outlook is clearly negative for Russia and neutral for Turkey. In Ukraine, the recovery experienced in 2016 is predicted to be sustained until 2019. Both building construction and civil engineering could expand further with a relatively good pace. Continue reading EECFA 2017 Summer Construction Forecast and Revision
