Q2 data pointing to a weakening construction sector in Hungary

Posted on by efalucskai

Although Q1 data suggested that early 2026 started well for construction, in Q2 the sector saw a way more moderate investment mood: the level of Project-Start shrank to roughly half of the Q1 level. The latest EBI Construction Activity Report found that projects worth less than HUF 470 billion started – the third lowest value since 2021. The value of construction projects started in Q2 was about 41% lower than the average three-month value​​​​ between 2021 and 2026. Thanks to the outstanding Q1 figures due to Paks 2 and the high number of multi-unit residential project starts, however, the overall level of Project-Start in H1 is still not drastically low: the drop is just over 3% like-for-like. Yet, compared to the first six months of 2021-2024, the decline is between 17% and 45%.

EBI Construction Activity Report Hungary analyses the construction industry on a quarterly basis, including the volume of newly started construction works and the value of projects completed in each quarter in aggregate and by segment as well. It is prepared by Eltinga, Buildecon (creation of indicators and development of algorithms for aggregation) and iBuild (project research and project database). To order the report, please contact us.

We have renamed our indicators for the sake of easier understanding; from now on we refer to the total value of started/completed construction works as Project-Start/Completion.

Building construction: Q2 brought much lower Project-Start than Q1

As per the latest EBI Construction Activity Report, the value of projects entering construction in Q2 did not reach HUF 350 billion, making it the second worst quarter since 2021. Looking at the first half of the year, the Project-Start of less than HUF 1,000 billion at current price has been the lowest level since 2021, falling 10%-27% short of the figures of the first 6 months of the past 6 years. Although Q2 brought lower Project-Start ​​for both multi-unit residential and non-residential buildings, the latter did not post such a radical drop. Overall, non-residential projects worth slightly more than HUF 500 billion entered construction during H1 2026 – the lowest level in the past 6 years and 10%-52% lower than in the same period of previous years.

Among the biggest non-residential projects launched in Q2 2026 was the construction of Airport Service Centre Office Building, Phase 2 of Petőfi Theatre in Veszprém, and several logistics ones such as Phase2 of CTP logistics park in Érd, the next phase of the Weerts Logistics Centre project, as well as the final works of Phase 2 of Kecskemét Campus.

Civil engineering: projects launched at a much lower value in Q2

Owing to the high Project-Start due to the Paks 2 project in Q1 2026, in Q2 the value of Project-Start slightly exceeded HUF 120 billion. Started projects were primarily non-road and non-railway projects, with the largest being the combined cycle gas turbine power plant in Visonta and the hybrid geothermal power plant in Zsana. Project-Start in the road and railway segments continued to be at a minimal level where the biggest project was the Baja southern bypass and junction.

Central Transdanubia overtaking Budapest

Looking at construction projects launched in the past four quarters, the biggest-value ones started in Central Transdanubia, largely due to the M1 motorway expansion that started in Q3 2025. The region’s share grew to 26%, exceeding the capital city (25%). The lowest value of Project-Start was in Western Transdanubia (6%), while the share of other regions ranged between 7% and 11%.

Decline in the value of started multi-unit constructions in the second quarter

According to the latest EBI Construction Activity Report, multi-unit residential Project-Start barely exceeded HUF 100 billion in the second quarter of this year, which was unprecedented in the past two years. But because construction works in the segment started at a great value in Q1 2026, the figures of the first half year in 2026 overall, even at constant price, only show a 35.5% decline like-for-like. Also, started multi-unit residential works far exceeded the first half-year levels of the years between 2019 and 2024.

Several factors are behind the more subdued project starts in Q2. First, some correction was expected after the near-record Q1. Second, developers may have become more cautious with project starts due to government change and moderate demand. Q3 will also bring lower Project-Start, and reduction is expected for the rest of the year. The suspension and review of certain projects that previously received state support under the Home Start Program is also delaying construction start, which may affect 17 000 dwellings. As of now, little is known about the newly announced Wekerle Housing Program (government initiative for affordable rental housing and student dormitories) as its specifics are expected by the end of the year. What is certain is that the program, with EUR 550 million of EU money, can play a great role in the development of multi-unit residential construction and can launch big projects – although its impact may be more pronounced in mid-term.

Looking at individual regions, the biggest decline in multi-unit residential construction starts compared to the previous quarter was in Pest County and the Northern Great Plain, where the value of projects entering construction was 80% and 84% less in Q2 than in Q1 this year, respectively. The decrease was also 68% in Budapest and Western Transdanubia. Similar trends are visible compared to the average quarterly Project-Start ​​for Q4 2024-Q1 2026, with the largest drop in Pest County and the Northern Great Plain region, followed by Central Transdanubia and the Southern Great Plain. Budapest registered the fifth biggest decrease (55%).

Despite the decline, Budapest played a key role in multi-unit residential starts this year as well, with at least 70% of such constructions starting here in Q1-Q2 of the year. Based on the average of the past years, the capital city’s share of Project-Start in the past year was 63%, while Northern Great Plain had 8%, Western Transdanubia and Southern Transdanubia had a 7% share each. In the past one year, works started in the lowest value in Northern Hungary: the region’s share was only 2%.

The biggest projects this year are also in Budapest where the construction of the last buildings of Kincsem Residential Park and the first buildings of Láng Quarter started. In case of rural locations, the largest project was Liget Residential Park in Tatabánya, but it did not make it into the top 10 biggest projects. A similar trend was seen in previous years: the largest projects were in Budapest, with only few rural projects making it to the top 10 list that started near Lake Balaton, in Debrecen or Paks.

The value of completed multi-unit buildings spiked to HUF 180 billion in Q2 2026, the highest Project-Completion in the past 11 years at current price but also considered high at constant price. Q2 saw the completion of several phases of Kincsem Residential Park and Phase 1 of Beluga Bay condominium whose construction started in 2023 and 2024. Project-Completion in the multi-unit residential segment may remain high in the second half of this year as well since Epresliget Residential Park in Debrecen and Újbuda Garden condominium in Budapest are expected to be completed.

EBI Hungary – megkezdett kivitelezési munkák – 2026. augusztus 23.-i állapot

Posted on by janosgaspar

A második negyedévben visszaesett a Projekt-Kezdés a társasházi lakásépítési részpiacon. A nagyon jó első negyedév miatt azonban az elmúlt félév összességében erősnek mondható. A nem-lakás magasépítési részpiac viszont rettentően gyenge, továbbra is rekord alacsony a megkezdett munkák összértéke. A mélyépítés jobban néz ki, mint tavaly ilyenkor, de ez leginkább a szuper-alacsony bázis miatt van. Az év eddigi részében nem indult igazán nagy közlekedési projekt.

Átneveztük a mutatószámainkat a könnyebb érthetőség kedvéért; mostantól Projekt-Kezdés/Befejezés néven utalunk a megkezdett/befejezett kivitelezési munkák összértékére. A vizualizációban is a korábbi Aktivitás-Kezdés/Befejezés helyett a Projekt-Kezdés/Befejezés kifejezésekre térünk át.

A poszter a két nagy építési részpiac Projekt-Kezdés indikátorának időszak/időszak változását mutatja, valamint a szegmenseket amelyekben a legnagyobb értékben indultak kivitelezések. Ezt a posztert minden hónapban kitesszük ide a blogunkra. A teljes építési piacot részletesen bemutató EBI Építésaktivitási Adatvizualizációt (összesen 18 szegmens adataival) is havonta frissítjük, és negyedévente az EBI Építésaktivitási Jelentésben is elmondjuk, hogy mit látunk a piacon. Ha érdeklik a részletek akkor a contact oldalon írjon nekünk.

Project-Start in the multi-unit housing construction submarket declined in Q2. However, due to the very good first quarter, the past half-year as a whole can be considered strong. The non-residential construction submarket, on the other hand, is terribly weak, the total value of started works is still at record low. Civil engineering looks better than this time last year, but this is mostly due to the super-low base. No big transport-related project has commenced so far this year.

We have renamed our indicators for the sake of easier understanding; from now on we refer to the total value of started/completed construction works as Project-Start/Completion. In the visualization, we are also switching to the terms of Project-Start/Completion instead of the previous Activity-Start/Completion.

The poster (above) shows the period/period changes of the Project-Start indicator in the 2 main submarkets and the segments with the largest value of started works. This poster is published every month here in the blog. The EBI Construction Activity Data visualization with the details on the whole construction market (with altogether 18 segments) is also updated monthly and the EBI Construction Activity Report, summarizing what’s happening in the market, is published in each quarter. If your interest in construction markets is deeper, please contact us for the details.

EECFA countries in the European Commission’s 2026 Macro Forecast

Posted on by efalucskai

Written by Tünde Tancsics – ELTINGA, EECFA Research

Similarly to every summer, ELTINGA (EECFA Research) has now examined how the European Commission sees the EECFA countries. Here is the summary of the major changes in economic prospects between the Autumn 2025 and Spring 2026 forecasts.

The economic outlook has deteriorated across almost all countries in the region compared to Autumn 2025, although growth projections remain positive. Serbia, Romania and Slovenia experienced the most significant downward revisions (-0.4 percentage points), while Bulgaria and Croatia underwent only slight adjustments (-0.05 to -0.1 percentage points). Russia was the only country whose projected growth marginally rose. Growth expectations for the EU and the Euro Area also fell moderately, reflecting a general weakening of economic momentum across the region.

In 2026-2027, average GDP growth is forecast to be positive in all countries, albeit to varying degrees. Türkiye is expected to lead the group with a growth of 3.5%, followed closely by Serbia (+3.35%). Meanwhile, Russia and Romania are forecast to have the smallest expansion (+1.2%). Croatia (+2.6%), Bulgaria (+2.35%) and Slovenia (+2.1%) are projected to perform in the middle of the range. The Euroconstruct member Hungary is predicted to grow by 1.95%, which is above the EU average. Despite the general downward revisions, most of the countries in the region are expected to do better than the EU (1.25%) and all of them will likely surpass the Euro Area (1.05%), maintaining the pattern of stronger growth dynamics in East and Southeast Europe.

Since the Autumn 2025 forecast, the projected growth rate of gross fixed capital formation in the region for 2026-2027 has been revised in both directions. The steepest cuts were seen in Bulgaria, in Serbia and in Romania where projected GFCF growth dropped by 0.8-1.75 percentage points. Meanwhile, Hungary, Slovenia, the EU, the Euro Area, and Russia recorded more moderate downward adjustments, while Türkiye and Croatia saw upward revisions. Serbia is still projected to lead in GFCF growth at 5.15%, followed by Türkiye (4.2%) and Romania (3.2%). Bulgaria (1.25%) and Russia (0.35%) remain at the lower end of the spectrum. The EU (2.1%) and the Euro Area (1.75%) continue to lag behind most countries in the region.

Growth expectations for gross fixed capital formation in construction have been modified across countries where data is available, in both positive and negative directions. The most notable upward revisions occurred in Slovenia where projected construction investment growth increased by 1.55 percentage points to 4.9% (the highest in the group). Romania ranked second in terms of expected growth with 4.85%. Compared to Autumn 2025, Croatia saw a more significant upward revision in its projected growth rate (1 percentage point); the third largest increase in gross fixed capital formation in construction is expected there (3.05%). By contrast, Hungary and Bulgaria experienced the biggest downward revisions, falling to 2.95% and 1.6%, respectively. In the broader European context, construction investment is projected to rise only modestly to 1.85% in the EU and 1.6% in the Euro Area, remaining below most national forecasts in the region.

The Commission’s view on expected construction investment is quite different from ours. Partly it is because we examine the sector from the bottom. For each segment we come up with an individual story and this is how the total construction market is formed. Our latest forecast is in the 2026 Summer EECFA Construction Forecast Reports. Sample report and order

We, at EECFA, are a little less optimistic in East Europe and a little less pessimistic in Southeast Europe than half a year ago. On country level, we expect 4 countries to be in the red until 2027, while truly sizeable growth is foreseen only in Türkiye and Ukraine. The latter is explained by the small base, though.

Mixed start to 2026 in Hungarian construction

Posted on by efalucskai

As per the latest EBI Construction Activity Report, 2026 did not start badly in Hungary for construction. Activity-Start in Q1 did not substantially lag behind Q1 2025 and Q1 2023, in fact, it slightly exceeded the average quarterly values ​​of these years. At the same time, the start of foundation works of Block 5 of Paks 2 nuclear plant played a major role in higher numbers, adding a more nuanced picture. Projects worth around HUF 740 billion entered construction in Q1 2026. At constant price, Activity-Start did not lag greatly behind the same period of 2025 (-9%), but we have still seen the weakest first three months since 2016.

EBI Construction Activity Report Hungary analyses the construction industry on a quarterly basis, including the volume of newly started construction works and the value of projects completed in each quarter in aggregate and by segment as well. It is prepared by Eltinga, Buildecon (creation of indicators and development of algorithms for aggregation) and iBuild (project research and project database). To obtain the report, please contact us.

Building construction returns to last year’s level

2026 started much weaker in building construction than last year, but the Activity-Start of around HUF 500 billion was roughly in line with the average quarterly level of 2025 and was only 6% below the average quarterly value of 2024. Hence, no major decline compared to the previous two years at current price. Even at constant price, the value of construction projects started in the first three months was close to the average quarterly level of last year, but it was double-digit below the average three-month Activity-Start between 2016 and 2024.

Multi-unit housing construction is still the segment keeping building construction at a higher level. Activity-Start for non-residential construction between January and March this year (HUF 263 billion) exceeded the average quarterly value of 2025, which was considered weak, but fell 33-44% short of the average values ​​between 2021 and 2024. At constant price, this year’s first-quarter Activity-Start has been one of the weakest since 2015.

Biggest started non-residential projects in Q1 2026 comprised several logistics and office buildings such as Phase 3 of Láng-negyed V1 office building and Frontiers Campus office and research centre in Budapest, and the renovation of BorsodChem offices in Kazincbarcika, Phase 3 of CTP VCS5 Logistics Centre in Vecsés, building D of VGP Park Beta logistics centre in Győr, building B of Panattoni Logistics Park in Mosonmagyaróvár, and Phase 1 of Penny Market logistics centre cold storage in Alsónémedi.

Paks 2 boosted civil engineering figures

In Q1 2026, the value of started civil engineering works neared HUF 240 billion boosted by the start of foundation works of Block 5 of Paks 2 nuclear plant, while the Activity-Start in road and railway projects was only HUF 20 billion. Apart from Paks 2, only one civil engineering project got into the largest projects in Q1 2026: the construction of Phase 2 of the industrial park in Nyíregyháza.

Budapest: regional heavyweight again

Budapest continued to be the region with the highest value of construction works started in Hungary with a share of 30% in total Activity-Start in Q1 2026. Based on the four-quarter moving averages, the share of Central Transdanubia was still considerably higher than in previous years thanks to the M1 motorway expansion launched in Q3 2025. Pest County, Southern Transdanubia and the Northern Great Plain accounted for about 9% of started constructions, while the share of other regions varied between 5% and 6%.

Multi-unit home construction still high

After a weaker final quarter last year, this year started with an extremely strong first three months for multi-unit housing. Between January and March, the value of started construction works exceeded HUF 240 billion at current price; the third highest quarterly Activity-Start since 2014. This value is significant even at constant price: only 2017-2018 and last year had stronger quarters.

The great increase in permits last year suggested strong activity at the beginning of this year. The latest EBI Construction Activity Report has found that many large projects have moved closer to planned start recently, also predicting a higher Q2 Activity-Start in the segment. However, there is a lot of uncertainty in the market now as projects within the Otthon Start Program are expected to be reviewed, which may change developers’ plans.

In Q1 2026 the value of completed multi-unit building was about HUF 83 billion, still considered a moderate level. At constant price, it is particularly low. But it comes as no surprise as previous years were characterized by restrained project launches, and the large-scale projects that started last year are set to be completed only later.

Looking at the past four quarters, about two-third of multi-unit building projects entering construction phase concentrated in Budapest, so the capital’s share remains exceptionally high. About 69% of projects started in Central Hungary, 13% of the Activity-Start was linked to Eastern Hungary, while Western Hungary’s share was 18%.

Non-residential construction: after a weaker last year, this year started slowly

Within the subsector, two segments accounted for the majority of the Activity-Start: offices and industry. Offices performed rather poorly in previous years but recovered somewhat in Q1 2026 with their share within non-residential construction going up to 34% compared to 9% in the previous two years. Industrial properties and warehouses continued to account for the other major part despite the decline (their share dropped to 36% against 44-54% in the previous four years). In the first three months of this year, about 9-10% of started non-residential projects were related to wholesale and retail and education.

In 2026, besides the previously mentioned office, industrial and logistics projects, the largest non-residential projects also included Cholnoky Jenő Student Camp in Révfülöp, Rheinmetall RDX explosives factory in Várpalota, Mixvill shopping center in Debrecen, and Phase 1 of MyRA Park M3 shopping park. In 2025, non-residential construction was also characterized by weaker Activity-Start, but several high-value projects were launched such as the special operations barracks in Szolnok, BYD’s assembly hall, logistics warehouse, press plant and lightweight construction plant in Szeged.

In the past three years, non-residential projects reached completion at an exceptionally high value, between HUF 1,600 and 1,700 billion. During this period, Phase 1 of eMAG logistics centre, certain elements of BMW and Mercedes-Benz projects and several logistics projects were completed, including Robert Bosch logistics hall in Miskolc. Activity-Completion indicator may remain at a high level this year as well. The Hungaroring paddock building has already been handed over and several elements of BYD projects, Samsung Göd expansion, and several CATL buildings in Debrecen may also be completed.

Original article: Tünde Tancsics (ELTINGA); English version: Eszter Falucskai (Buildecon)

Rusty

Posted on by janosgaspar

With the latest governmental decision, the number of projects in designated rust belt action areas reached 91 in Hungary. 50 thousand dwellings1 are estimated to be built on these brownfield sites. The sole purpose of this post is to follow these projects and to see how they will or will not help the recovery of the new residential construction sub-market in Hungary.

Status on 1 May 2026.
Before the election project starts slowed down. The newly elected government promises to double the number of built homes.
—
Completed: 4 018 dwellings
Under construction: 12 622 dwellings
Before construction: 27 180 dwellings

Brief background

Rust belt action areas (let me shorten them to rusty) are practically brownfield areas with special benefits. The owner of the site or the developer should initiate the process (with specific development plans) and there is a Committee to examine if the proposed site is entitled for the rusty status. Based on the opinion of the Committee, the final decision is made by the government. The decisions (about the exact sites) are announced in a decree and the special benefits coming with it are:

  • priority investment status, meaning e.g. faster permitting procedures2,
  • newly built homes can be sold at 5% VAT without limitation in time3,
  • this 5% can be reclaimed by the buyers4.

By the current regulations, it means a min. 5% and a max. 27% price advantage over competitors developing on non-rusty area until 2030 (depending on when the permit was obtained) and a 27% price advantage from 2031 on.

Our focus

What we do is to turn the mentioned decree into information we need for forecasting. With the help of Eltinga Building Permit Monitor database and the iBuild project information database, actual projects are identified from the lot numbers specified in the decree. Among all the general project specifics, the number of dwellings (where it is known), are attached to these projects.

The map shows the stages of the housing projects that were given rusty status. Bluish dots are those before construction, neon yellow dots are those under construction and the dot disappears once the project is completed.

OK, it is very convenient to see projects on a map, but our focus is more on the chart under the map where the yellow is the number of homes under construction.

What we are curious about is if and when the right end of the yellow curve shows a strong upturn.

In other words, we are curious whether the regulation ignites a recovery or not. In the first years of the regulation, it was more common that the yellow line has increased because projects having started in the past were given the rusty status. (So they were just re-qualified, it did not mean new project starts.) In parallel, it was less common that projects start after they were given the status. Just two extreme examples for these: Unipark Buda had been under construction between 2019 and 2024 and it got the rusty status at the end of 2023, while Láng District was given the rusty status in 2021 and actual works commenced 5 years later. This has changed by now. So currently the yellow line increases if new projects starts. More precisely if the number of dwellings in newly started projects outnumbers the number of dwellings in completed projects.

The charts are updated quarterly.

Another way we like to look at it is a list. Here we do not separate the projects to phases (like on the map) and it gives a quick understanding on how each rusty project moves ahead from 1 February 2024 on.

Data sources

The data mostly come from Eltinga Building Permit Monitor (in Hungarian: Építési Engedély Figyelő). This is a very detailed database on before construction multi-unit housing projects in Budapest. It is aiming primarily at developers who would like to understand the competition. For further information on this, please turn to Mr Zoltán Sápi, Eltinga, sapiz@eltinga.hu. Besides, we use the iBuild project information database.

  1. This is an estimation based on the median size of those rusty projects where the number of homes were announced ↩︎
  2. 619/2021. (XI. 8.) Korm. rendelet
    a rozsdaövezeti akcióterületek kijelöléséről és egyes akcióterületeken megvalósuló beruházásokra irányadó sajátos követelményekről     ↩︎
  3. 2021/8. Adózási kérdés – A rozsdaövezeti lakások értékesítésének adómértéke ↩︎
  4. Rozsdaövezeti adó-visszatérítési támogatás ↩︎

Q4 2025: Weak Construction Activity-Start in Hungary

Posted on by efalucskai

The latest EBI Construction Activity Report has found that although the expansion of M1 motorway caused a considerable surge in the value of started construction projects in Q3 2025, Q4 brought very low Activity-Start. Even at current price, such a low number of construction projects did not start in a quarter in the past 9 years. However, thanks to the high numbers in Q3, annual Activity-Start only slightly sank against 2024. In total, projects worth nearly HUF 2,900 billion entered construction phase in 2025.

EBI Construction Activity Report Hungary analyses the construction industry on a quarterly basis, including the volume of newly started construction works and the value of projects completed in each quarter in aggregate and by segment as well. It is prepared by Eltinga, Buildecon (creation of indicators and development of algorithms for aggregation) and iBuild (project research and project database). To obtain the report, please contact us.

Declining Activity-Start in building construction in Q4 2025

In Q4 2025, Activity-Start in building construction decreased significantly compared to previous quarters. However, due to the higher first quarter value, the full-year decline remained 10% compared to 2024, while the decrease was 8% over 2023.

Overall, construction works started in the segment last year were worth slightly less than HUF 2,000 billion, the lowest level between 2021 and 2025. Due to the significant increase in multi-unit residential construction in 2025 and the few construction starts in non-residential buildings, multi-unit residential construction accounted for almost half of building construction Activity-Start, which has not been the case since the first half of the 2000s.

Non-residential construction was characterized by a decline in Q4, and the value of started construction works was roughly at the same level as in Q2, which was also modest. For the year as a whole, non-residential Activity-Start was around HUF 1,000 billion, the lowest value in the period between 2018 and 2025. It also shows a 37.5% decline compared to 2024 at current price, and a 43% drop over 2023.

The largest non-residential projects entering construction phase in Q4 2025 included the construction of several logistics centres, such as CATL warehouse in Debrecen, Porsche Parts Center logistics-warehouse centre in Budaörs, and Building C of VGP Park Budapest Aerozone. Several hotel projects began, too, including the construction of Mama Shelter Hotel and Ruby Hotel in Budapest, and Danubius Hotel Annabella ***Superior in Balatonfüred.

M1 highway expansion boosting civil engineering Activity-Start in 2025

Following Q3 2025, which registered high Activity-Start due to the expansion of M1 motorway (M0-Concó rest area), Q4 2025 saw a very low value of started civil engineering works in Hungary. Few projects started not only in value, but also in number.

Thanks to the motorway project, annual figures tell a nicer story with projects starting in the value of nearly HUF 1,000 billion in 2025. It did not differ much from 2024, although the figures then were also boosted by the start of one large project, the construction of the Mohács Danube Bridge and related road network. Overall, in 2024-2025, apart from these two large projects, the value of civil engineering projects entering construction phase would have been very moderate. In Q4 2025 not a single project made it to the list of biggest started ones, indicating the reduction in civil engineering in that quarter.

Budapest continues to lead Activity-Start

Budapest had the highest share, 31%, within total Activity-Start in the last four quarters. Central Transdanubia also had a high proportion, more than 27%, primarily due to the M1 highway expansion. Together, more than 40% of works started in Central Hungary, 36.4% were related to Western Transdanubia, while the share of Eastern Hungary was 23%.

Sluggish multi-unit residential developer activity in Q4 2025

Q4 2025 saw another decrease in the value of started multi-unit residential constructions, with the cost value of started works falling below the level of Q2-Q3 2024, the second lowest value in the past two years.

However, 2025 overall was still a record year thanks to the high activity in the first 3 quarters of the year. Works worth nearly HUF 1,000 billion started, exceeding the Activity-Start of the previous year by 60% even at current price. At constant price, it was roughly equivalent to the record holder years of 2017-2018.

2026 may also register strong multi-unit residential construction as last year’s preliminary data shows surge in building permits. Further boost may come from the Otthon Start Program which was launched in September 2025 (subsidy helping first-time homebuyers secure up to HUF 50 million in mortgage financing with a fixed 3% interest rate and a maximum 25-year term) and the Capital Program, which was also started last year. In connection with the former, the construction of several thousand units has been announced in priority projects, and applications for several thousand more may be given green light. Since sales deadlines must also be met in priority projects, their start is expected soon with many construction works beginning this year.

The weaker project start in recent years was also visible in the Activity-Completion indicator in 2025. Multi-unit homes worth a total of HUF 370 billion were completed last year, roughly 8% below the 2024 value.

Regionally, in the past 4 quarters, most multi-unit residential Activity-Start was related to Budapest with 68% of works starting here in 2025. Central Hungary, including the capital city, accounted for 70%. 16% of works started in Western Hungary and 14% in Eastern Hungary.

Moderate wholesale and retail Activity-Start in Q4 2025

The last time an outstanding Activity-Start was registered in wholesale and retail was in 2017 and 2021-2022. In 2017 the start of construction of Etele Plaza contributed with the highest value, while in 2022 two big project starts played a major role in higher numbers (ActiCity Event Center in Veszprém and Phase II of Zenit Corso shopping centre in Zugló).

2025 brought a rather modest Activity-Start in wholesale and retail, works started by a 27% lower value than in 2024. The decline compared to 2023 was also 16%, roughly at the level of 2020, and the shrinkage compared to the peak years (2017 and 2021-2022) was 39-50%. Despite the drop, larger projects began last year, such as OBI DIY store and Drive-in in Kistarcsa and Stop Shop in Salgótarján.

In 2025, a total of HUF 71 billion worth of wholesale and retail properties were completed, the same as in 2024, for example, the shopping court in Táncsics Mihály Street in Komárom, Phase I of Time Out Market in Budapest, Mömax home improvement store in Székesfehérvár, and Spar store and Dera Park shopping park in Szentendre.

Original article: Tünde Tancsics (ELTINGA); English version: Eszter Falucskai (Buildecon)

M1 motorway boosting Activity-Start in Hungarian construction

Posted on by efalucskai

The latest EBI Construction Activity Report Hungary has found that it was mainly due to the ongoing M1 motorway expansion that the value of started construction projects rose significantly in the third quarter of this year. The value of projects entering construction in July-September 2025 exceeded HUF 1,000 billion at current price – the second highest level in the past ten years. Without this motorway expansion, accounting for around 60% of Activity-Start, the figures would have been much more modest, though.

EBI Construction Activity Report Hungary analyses the construction industry on a quarterly basis, including the volume of newly started construction works and the value of projects completed in each quarter in aggregate and by segment as well. It is prepared by Eltinga, Buildecon (creation of indicators and development of algorithms for aggregation) and iBuild (project research and project database).

Building Construction Activity-Start

In Q3 2025 the value of started building construction projects was HUF 400 billion, around the same value as between April and June. Thanks to the outstanding figures between January and March, the value of building construction projects entering construction phase exceeded HUF 1,500 billion, only 4 points short of the same period in 2023 and 2024. At constant price, Activity-Start between January and September of this year was the lowest in the past 9 years.

Activity-Start of EBI Construction Activity Report in multi-unit housing construction, although greatly sank, stayed at a high level, with the total value of projects started in Q3 2025 exceeding HUF 170 billion. The situation was the opposite in non-residential construction. The segment recovered somewhat between July and September from the previous quarter’s low point, but projects still entered construction at a low value: Activity-Start was around HUF 230 billion. Since 2017 non-residential construction projects haven’t started at a lower value than in the first 9 months of this year.

The largest non-residential projects entering construction in Q3 2025 included MCC’s talent centre in Miskolc, BYD’s electric bus assembly plant in Komárom, Panattoni Logistics Park Building A in Mosonmagyaróvár, IGPark automotive parts manufacturing hall in Nyíregyháza, Phase 2 of Weerts Ebes logistics centre, and MVM Neuron headquarters office building in the 3rd district of Budapest.

Civil engineering Activity-Start

Civil Engineering Activity-Start of EBI Construction Activity Report registered a surge in Q3 2025 due to M1 motorway expansion (M0-Concó rest area). Outside road construction, the value of construction projects started in other civil engineering segments was moderate. While total Civil Engineering Activity-Start exceeded HUF 760 billion, the value of non-road and railway projects started was only around HUF 50 billion in Q3. In addition to the two phases of M1 motorway expansion, only Phase 7 of the closure of the Gyöngyösoroszi ore mine could make it to the list of the biggest started civil engineering projects.

Budapest on top among regions

In the past four quarters, the highest value of construction projects in Hungary started in Budapest and its share in total Activity-Start was 28%. Central Transdanubia also had a large share of 23%. 39% of projects started in Western Hungary, 38% in Central Hungary, while Eastern Hungary’s share was 23%.

Still high multi-unit housing Activity-Start

Although Q3 2025 was the second consecutive year to see a significant drop in the value of started multi-unit housing construction works, Activity-Start stayed high, far exceeding the average of recent years. At current price, multi-unit housing construction works started at an over HUF 170 billion, the fourth highest value after the first two quarters of 2025 and the last quarter of 2024. Overall, the successful first 9 months of this year brought a huge jump in multi-unit housing Activity-Start at current price, but it was also outstanding at constant price, only surpassed by the same period in 2017 in the last 10 years.

Multi-unit housing construction is likely to remain strong. There was a high number of building permits issued in the first three quarters of this year, meaning plenty of projects to get started. In Q3 2025 permitting was boosted by the preferential loan program dubbed Otthon Start available since September which could continue to have a positive impact on the number of homes under construction.

In Q3 this year, multi-unit homes worth around HUF 80 billion were completed at current price, while in the first 9 months, multi-unit housing Activity-Completion was well over HUF 200 billion, only slightly lower than in the same period in 2023-2024.

Looking at the past 4 quarters, Budapest continued to have a major share in multi-unit constructions entering construction (73%). Central Hungary had a 76%, while Western Hungary and Eastern Hungary had a share of 12% each.

Still weak Activity-Start in industrial buildings and warehouses

Industrial buildings and warehouses thrived between 2022 and 2024 when construction works worth between HUF 700 billion and 1,000 billion started annually. For example, construction started on several BMW plants around Debrecen, on Mercedes-Benz projects in Kecskemét, and on several battery factories. This year has seen a decline so far and the value of projects started during three months in Q2-Q3 2025 has been the lowest since 2021. Overall, in the first 9 months of 2025, Activity-Start in industrial buildings and warehouses was around HUF 400 billion, 37% lower than in the same period of 2024, and 29%-39% lower than the 2022-2023 values. Trends are similar at constant price: the period of 2021-2023 was exceptionally good for industrial buildings and warehouses, while there was a strong decline in 2025. In the last 10 years, Activity-Start at constant price in the first 9 months has not been so low as now.

The biggest projects started between January and September 2025 were CTP’s logistics halls in Biatorbágy and Vecsés, HelloParks’ logistics hall in Fót and BYD’s projects in Szeged and Komárom. Construction of Phase 1 of Halms automotive parts manufacturing plant in Miskolc and Panattoni Logistics Park Building A in Mosonmagyaróvár also started.

Activity-Completion was relatively high in all three quarters of 2025 as several projects that started in 2022-2024 reached completion. The value of projects completed since the beginning of 2025 neared HUF 700 billion. For example, this year saw the completion of CATL warehouse and metalworking plant in Debrecen and its surroundings, two BMW factories, and the hangar complex of the Helicopter Base in Szolnok. And Activity-Completion may also remain high in the last quarter of this year.

Original article: Tünde Tancsics (ELTINGA); English version: Eszter Falucskai (Buildecon)

EECFA countries in the European Commission’s 2025 Macro Forecast

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Written by Dóra Barát – ELTINGA, EECFA Research

This summer ELTINGA at EECFA Research has again looked at how the European Commission sees the EECFA countries. Here is what has changed in the prospects between Autumn 2024 and Spring 2025.

Compared to Autumn 2024, economic outlook has deteriorated in all countries covered, although the projected growth remains positive across the board. The most significant downward revisions have occurred in Romania, Bulgaria, and Hungary, while countries like Croatia, Slovenia, and Russia have seen more moderate adjustments. Growth expectations for both the EU and the Euro Area have also slightly declined, mirroring the broader cooling of optimism across the region.

Average GDP growth in 2025-2026 is projected to be positive in all examined countries, though to differing degrees. Serbia is expected to record the highest expansion at 3.5%, followed by Türkiye (3.15%) and Croatia (3.05%), while Russia (1.45%) is forecast to have the slowest growth in the region. Growth in Euroconstruct member Hungary is projected at 1.65%, falling between the regional average and the broader EU outlook. The remaining EECFA countries (Romania, Bulgaria, and Slovenia) are expected to grow between 1.8% and 2.2%. Despite downward revisions, all countries in the region are forecast to outperform the averages of the EU (1.3%) and the Euro Area (1.15%), continuing the trend of a stronger growth in Eastern and Southeast Europe.

The projected growth rate of gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) for 2025-2026 has weakened in nearly all countries since the Autumn 2024 forecast. Romania has witnessed a major downward revision with the expected growth dropping by just over 4 percentage points, while Hungary has also registered a significant cut of around 2.4 percentage points. Türkiye, Slovenia, and Bulgaria have experienced more moderate declines. In Croatia, the outlook remained unchanged at 3.75%, and Russia was the only country with a slight upward revision. Despite the general slowdown, Serbia is projected to post the strongest GFCF growth at 6.7%, followed by Croatia (3.75%) and Romania (2.95%), while most other countries are set to grow between 1.25% and 2.75%. The EU (1.95%) and Euro Area (1.75%) are to remain at the lower end of the spectrum.

Expectations for the growth rate of gross fixed capital formation into construction have also been revised downward in all countries where data is available. Romania has seen the steepest decline with its projected growth falling from 8.45% to 3.9%, though it still holds the highest rate among the observed countries. Hungary and Slovenia have experienced similar reductions, both dropping by more than 2.5 percentage points. Smaller adjustments have been recorded in Bulgaria and Croatia where the outlook for GFCF into construction growth remains relatively strong at 2.85% and 3.8%, respectively. In the broader European context, the EU and the Euro Area are projected to see only a respective modest growth of 1.9% and 1.6%, slightly below most national forecasts in the region.

The Commission’s view on construction investment is somewhat different from ours. Partly it is because we examine the sector from the bottom. For each segment we come up with an individual story and this is how the total construction market is formed. Our latest forecast is in the 2025 Summer EECFA Construction Forecast Reports. Sample report and order

We, in EECFA, are also less optimistic about the near future than half a year ago. The direction of the revision is mostly downward. In cases of Bulgaria, Croatia and Hungary we project moderate growth which is pretty close to the Commission’s expectations. In four countries, however, we do not think average real growth until 2026 could be positive.

Q1 2025 sees weak Activity-Start in Hungarian construction

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2025 started off weak in Hungarian construction despite the much higher Activity-Start at the end of 2024 fuelled by launched major projects then. In Q1 2025 the value of started construction works greatly dropped compared to both the previous quarter and the same period of the previous year. The Activity-Start of EBI Construction Activity Report at current price was around HUF 570 billion in Q1 2025; the second lowest quarterly value since July 2020. At constant price, and if adjusted with price changes, it has been the second worst three-month Activity-Start since 2015.

Value of started building construction works fuelled by multi-unit residential projects

Building construction has slightly improved compared to the previous two weaker quarters: the value of started works was well over HUF 500 billion, 18% up from Q4 2024. The improvement, which was also evident at constant price compared to H2 2024, was attributable to the surge in multi-unit residential works. At the same time, Non-Residential Activity-Start continued to see the low levels of the last two quarters of 2024. In the first three months of this year, non-residential construction works of slightly more than HUF 240 billion started, the lowest quarterly figure since 2017. At constant price, no building construction works have started in such a low quarterly value in the past 10 years.

Among biggest building projects launched in Q1 2025 were mainly logistics buildings: CTP logistics halls in Vecsés (Phase 2) and Biatorbágy, and HelloParks logistics hall in Fót. Construction also began on Phase 2 of Building A of H2Offices in Budapest, and the Hungerit poultry processing plant in Szentes.

Critically low value of started civil engineering projects

Civil Engineering Activity-Start was extremely low in Q1 2025 with started construction works worth only HUF 31 billion. This has by no means been the lowest value recorded in the subsector since 2014, both at current and constant prices. Activity-Start in road and railways and in non-road and non-railways amounted to around HUF 16 billion, respectively. Sadly, not a single civil engineering project made it into the largest projects entering construction phase in the quarter.

Regional comparison: Budapest on the lead

According to EBI Construction Activity Report, Budapest had the highest value of construction projects started in Hungary in the last four quarters. And although its share in total Activity-Start slightly dropped, it still stood at 32%, exceeding the 20%-30% typical in the period between 2021 and 2023.

In Northern Great Plain, the region that previously was on the lead, 14% of projects started in Q1 2025. The share of Southern Transdanubia was 16%, while that of Southern Great Plain 11%. Western Transdanubia and Northern Hungary registered the lowest value at 5%, respectively. In Central Transdanubia, 7% of projects started, whereas in the Pest region, 10%.

Multi-unit residential projects shooting up

The latest EBI Construction Activity Report Hungary has found that 2025 started off greatly in the multi-unit residential segment as in the first three months the value of construction starts was almost HUF 300 billion at current price. It has been a record since 2014 and exceeds the previous quarter’s highest value (HUF 209 billion). Even at constant price, the growth in Activity-Start is a 39% rise over the previous quarter.

This increased activity comes as no surprise: the last quarter of last year already witnessed recovery with developers responding to growing demand and preparing for increased interest at the beginning of this year.

The market has confirmed these expectations, and as per ELTINGA’s Housing Market Report, the latest two quarters saw a record in Budapest in the number of sold new multi-unit dwellings. Although a major part of demand came from investors, the question is how long this can last. Developers might become more cautious with project starts towards the end of the year as demand might decrease following interest payments and maturing government bonds.

When it comes to completions, the value of completed multi-unit residential projects in Q1 2025 was around HUF 76 billion, a drop compared to both the previous quarter and the same period last year. At constant price, Activity-Completion in Q1 2025 has been the third worst value since 2019.

Regionally, looking at the past four quarters, Budapest accounted for 70% of multi-unit projects entering construction, while Central Hungary recorded slightly more than 72% of the value of such projects. Eastern Hungary had a 13%, while Western Hungary had a 16% share in Activity-Start.

Better Q1 2025 in industrial buildings and warehouses than in the construction industry as a whole

In Q1 2025 the total value of construction starts of industrial buildings and warehouseswithover HUF 150 billion was slightly higher than in the previous two quarters. True, if we look at the period between 2022 and H1 2024, it was the second lowest value. Last year, in addition to automotive industry projects, several food industry projects started such as Pick’s plant in Szeged, Master Good-Sága plant in Sárvár, or Félegyházi Bakery plant and warehouse in Kiskunfélegyháza.

In the first quarter of this year, as previously mentioned, the largest projects entering construction phase included several logistics projects such as CTP’s logistics halls in Biatorbágy and Vecsés, and HelloParks’ project in Fót. Besides, the construction of several plants began: Unilever’s deodorant factory in Nyírbátor, Phase 2 of Scheider Electric’s Duna Smart Power Systems smart factory in Dunavecse, or Kométa’s packaging plant in Kaposvár.

As for completions in the segment, industrial buildings and warehouses were completed at a value of HUF 250 billion in the first quarter of this year – the third highest value since 2014. Biggest completed industrial projects include CATL warehouse and metalworking plant in Debrecen and HelloParks AN1 logistics hall in Alsónémedi. And we expect to see further major completions this year.

EBI Construction Activity Report Hungary analyses the construction industry on a quarterly basis, including the volume of newly started construction works and the value of projects completed in each quarter in aggregate and by segment as well. It is prepared by Eltinga, Buildecon (creation of indicators and development of algorithms for aggregation) and iBuild (project research and project database). To purchase the report, ask for a quote

Original article: Tünde Tancsics (ELTINGA); English version: Eszter Falucskai (Buildecon)

Last quarter of 2024 registers great rise in started constructions in Hungary

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The Activity-Start of the latest EBI Construction Activity Report surpassed HUF 830 billion, a value considered to be exceptionally high. It should be added though, that these outstanding numbers were mostly thanks to the start of the construction works of the Mohács Danube Bridge project.

Despite the weaker Q2 and Q3, thanks to the good Q4, in the whole 2024 started construction works totalled about HUF 2800 billion, almost the same level as in 2023. Yet, it was a significant lag compared to the 2021-2022 figures, and at constant price it was still the lowest Activity-Start of recent years. Last time we saw a lower value of construction start than the 2024 level was in 2016.

EBI Construction Activity Report Hungary analyses the construction industry on a quarterly basis, including the volume of newly started construction works and the value of projects completed in each quarter in aggregate and by segment as well. It is prepared by Eltinga, Buildecon (creation of indicators and development of algorithms for aggregation) and iBuild (project research and project database). For purchasing the full report, please write to us.

Multi-unit residential projects boosting building construction

Building construction projects worth a total of around HUF 500 billion were launched between October and December last year. For the whole of 2024, the value of building projects entering construction phase was nearly HUF 2000 billion. Yet, last year’s Activity-Start fell short of the yearly figures for 2021-2023; the difference compared to 2023 was 5.9%, while compared to 2022 and 2021 it was 15% and 13%, respectively. At constant price, the last time a value lower than in 2024 was recorded was in 2015.

The reason for the better Building Construction Activity-Start in Q4 was clearly the multi-unit residential segment that posted a record growth over previous quarters. Activity-Start in the non-residential segment was low in Q4, though, almost the same as in Q3 (just over HUF 200 billion), still a very modest level compared to the quarterly figures of previous years. At constant price, Non-residential Activity-Start has not been as low in the past 11 years as in Q4 2024. Looking at the whole of 2024, construction works started here on slightly more than HUF 1,300 billion at current price, the lowest value since 2021. At constant price, the last time Non-residential Activity-Start was lower than last year was in 2014.

The biggest building construction projects that started in Q1 2024 included many multi-unit residential ones such as several phases of Kincsem by Bayer, the next phases of Park West and City Pearl. Also, the highest-value projects comprised the start of construction of several industrial and logistics buildings (Waberer’s logistics centre in Ecser, Phoenix Pharma logistics warehouse and office in Győr, the production facility of Félegyházi Bakery in Kiskunfélegyháza, Fémalk’s industrial plant in Dunavarsány and Phase 4 of Hankook tire factory in Rácalmás).

Civil engineering posted a good last quarter last year

In Q4 2024 civil engineering works worth more than HUF 330 billion started, approaching the exceptionally high value registered in Q1. Thus, overall, the level of Civil Engineering Activity-Start of EBI Construction Activity Report in 2024 exceeded HUF 800 billion, more than the 2023 figure and nearing the 2021 value. True, almost the entire Q4 Civil Engineering Activity-Start was due to the start of the Mohács Danube Bridge project.

Around half of the Activity-Start in Q4 2024 was related to road and railway projects with their level roughly being the same as in Q1. The situation was similar in case of non-road and non-railway construction works. The weak numbers in the middle of the year were followed by a larger number of construction starts in the last three months of the year. Yet, looking at the whole of 2024, projects worth less than HUF 400 billion entered construction in roads and railways, not even reaching the level recorded in 2023. At constant price, the last time Activity-Start was lower than last year was in 2015.

Most projects started in Central Hungary

Looking at the past 4 quarters, roughly half of the projects started in Central Hungary. Within, nearly 40% of the works started in Budapest. Eastern Hungary had a 23%, while Western Hungary had a 26% share in Activity-Start. Among the regions, thanks to the Mohács Danube Bridge project, the share of Southern Transdanubia spiked (14% after the previous 5%). The share of Northern Great Plain dropped; it was only 9% against the previous double-digit rates.

Multi-unit housing construction has picked up

In Q4 2024 multi-unit housing construction works practically exploded. The value of started works reached nearly HUF 300 billion, almost doubling the previous record of Activity-Start of EBI Construction Activity Report. Thanks to the outstanding last three months, 2024 was ultimately a record year with the value of started multi-unit construction works surpassing HUF 600 billion. It outnumbered the Activity-Start of 2023 by 66% and represented a growth of about 45% at current price over 2021 and 2022. At constant price, the value of multi-unit construction starts in 2024 was higher than in 2023 and 2022, roughly the same as in 2019 and 2021.

The acceleration in multi-unit housing constructions in Q4 2024 comes as no surprise. Developers may have responded to the pick-up in demand already noticeable last year, plus, they may have prepared for an even greater increase in demand this year – in line with market expectations. Subsidies in 2025 (maturing government bonds and interest payments, private pension fund savings that can only be used for housing purposes this year) may considerably spur the willingness to buy a home this year.

As for completions in the multi-unit segment, construction works of about HUF 400 billion were completed in 2024, exceeding the Activity-Completion indicator of EBI Construction Activity Report of the previous three years. Last year’s multi-unit residential completions were the second highest value registered after 2020.

Regionally, most multi-unit residential projects still started in Budapest, accounting for more than 70% of the value of construction starts in 2024, compared to the previous figure of under 60%. However, Eastern and Western Hungary posted a major decrease and had shares of 10% and 18%, respectively.

Weak H2 2024 in the value of started office construction projects

Activity-Start in office constructions fell sharply between July and December last year with works worth less than HUF 20 billion. Although H1 2024 managed to reach the figures of H1 2022 and H1 2023, overall, there was a large drop in 2024. The value of Activity-Start of EBI Construction Activity Report did not reach HUF 130 billion in 2024. This was a 24% decline compared to 2022, while a 68% and 66% lag behind the outstandingly successful years of 2023 and 2021. After 2015, even at current price, only in 2020 did office projects start in a lower value than last year. At constant price, the office market had not registered such a low Activity-Start as in 2024 in the past 11 years.

The start of MBH Bankholding HQ and the central office next to Rossmann warehouse was the two office construction projects with the biggest value last year. The decline in market-based office projects has not started now. Rather, in recent years, state orders have been able to enable growth in the segment. For instance, the fact that the overhaul of the former Ministry of Finance building in the Buda Castle, the historic reconstruction of the Hungarian National Bank HQ and Phases 1-3 of the reconstruction of the former Palace of Archduke Joseph all started at the same time in 2021 boosted Activity-Start that year. Or, in 2023, the start of renovation works on the Ministry of Agriculture building and on the Palace of Justice building, as well as the start of construction of the BudaPart and Zugló City Centre offices all contributed to high Activity-Start that year. A large part of these will also house state agencies and companies.

When it comes to office completions in 2024, the Activity-Completion indicator was nearing HUF 300 billion, the highest value ever measured in the market. For example, the Hungarian National Bank HQ and the reconstruction of the Ministry of Finance building both reached completion. 2025 may be another record-breaking year in terms of office completions as several office buildings in BudaPart and Zugló City Centre may also be completed.

Original article: Tünde Tancsics (ELTINGA); English version: Eszter Falucskai (Buildecon)