As all Q2 figures are available, our visualizations with the 8 EECFA countries are updated.
In the Balkans, 4 out of five countries are peaking in housing permits. Especially Bulgaria, Romania and Serbia are at outstanding levels. In the meantime, Turkey has touched further lows in Q2; the quarterly permit figure is hardly higher than that of Ukraine.
Ukraine and Romania are also close to their recent peaks in non-residential permits; the level of these in terms of sqm is not exceptional, though. Serbia has the big story in non-residential. Around 2.6 million sqm of permitted space (in the latest 4 quarters together) is huge, 2.5 times higher than back in 2008.
In Q2 2016 the number of permits issued in the latest 4 quarters for residential homes increased by 14% in the Balkan EECFA countries together, compared to the same period last year. Turkey registered a 10% growth in this term, while Ukraine’s Q1 2016 (latest available) figures are almost 30% up.
In case of non-residential buildings, permitted floor area remained at the same level in the Balkan as recorded a year ago, while Turkey saw a drop of 1% in Q2 2016, and Ukraine ended up 20% positive in Q4 2015 (latest available).
In Russia, residential completion of the latest 4 quarters decreased by 2% in Q2 2016 and non-residential completion stood at 1% in comparison with a year ago. (Russia-wide permit data is not available)
The updated interactive permit-completion graphs of EECFA countries are available here:
On the residential graphs, the number of dwellings is displayed, and you can choose the countries and the data type. Besides these options, on non-residential graphs you can also choose the indicator type (floor area or number of buildings)
As we regularly issue forecasts, for us the most important question of this compilation is whether the newly incoming data are in line with our latest (short-term) forecast or not. So below we have highlighted some countries and tried to put the figures into this perspective.
Residential permit– Biggest growth rates: Serbia
Almost 13 thousand permitted dwellings in the Q2 2015 – Q2 2016 period translate to a 44% growth on comparable basis. This is supporting our view that completion could start increasing this year.
Residential permit– Biggest growth rates: Ukraine
Permit reached an estimated 178 thousand in the last 4 reported quarters together, which is a 29% increase, while completion was above 110 thousand. It does not contradict our view that completion in 2016 will remain at around its 2015 level.
Residential completion – Biggest markets: Russia
In the Q2 2015 – Q2 2016 period 1 170 thousand dwellings were completed, a 2% drop on comparable basis. Data so far are in line with our expectations.
Residential permit – Biggest markets: Turkey
Almost 960 thousand dwellings were permitted in the last 4 quarters including Q2 2016, meaning a 10% increase compared to a year ago. Completion stood at around 725 thousand, 3% more than in Q2 2015. These are in line with our predictions.
Non-residential permit – Biggest growth rates: Serbia
In Q2 2015 – Q2 2016, surpassing well its 2007-2008 level, 1.5 million m2 non-residential floor area was permitted, meaning an almost 100% jump from a year ago. This is supporting our optimistic outlook.
Slovenia is coming back from very low levels, in the Q2 2015 – Q2 2016 period altogether 735 thousand m2 non-residential floor area got permit, an increase of almost 60% over a year earlier. This is also in line with our positive outlook.
Non-residential permit – Biggest markets: Turkey
Permits for around 48 million m2 of non-residential floor area were issued in the latest 4 quarters until Q2 2016, which is virtually the same level than a year ago. This does not contradict with our soft-landing scenario. Completion is 11% in the positive territory in the Q2 2015 – Q2 2016 period against the corresponding period a year ago, but in case of non-residential sub-sector, the connection between output and completion is not as strong as in case of residential.
Non-residential completion – Biggest markets: Russia
Coming down very slightly from the peak, in Q2 2015 – Q2 2016 around 30 million m2 non-residential floor areas were competed. Investment into non-residential construction has been shrinking recently, so this does not contradict our pessimistic outlook.
The interactive graphs are updated half-yearly, in between 2 report issuance. If you would like to have the row data in xls, feel free to contact us.
Data are from national statistical offices: NSI, Crostat, KSH, Insse, Rosstat, SURS, SORS, Tuik, Ukrstat
Robear is helping to revolutionize the manufacturing industry: do robears prefer China or Europe? (source: HuffingtonPost)
Adidas has announced that it will open its first all-robot factory in Germany, and many will follow in rich countries. Foxconn, the manufacturer of Apple products fired 60,000 employees and employed robots instead of them. It seems this is the beginning of the end.
The way we manufacture products is about to change dramatically in the next decade. There are two intertwined trends that have already started to revolutionize the industry: the digitisation of industry (or the “takeover of robots”) and that global economic growth is less and less energy and machinery-intensive (more and more value added comes from services). None of these are new; however, both of these trends are in front of a new era of growth. Developments in big data and machine learning are increasing the capabilities of robots and global value chains are becoming seamless. Economic growth is coming increasingly from services, as opposed to manufacturing. Moreover, growing concerns about climate change and the ongoing shift away from heavy machinery in state-of-the-art manufacturing are leading to the growing use of lighter materials instead of metals. Continue reading New manufacturing is coming: Europe or China will be the new China?
As almost all Q4 figures were published, we have updated our interactive graphs containing quarterly development of permit and completion in the countries we cover. Beside the residential market, now we have put together a similar one about non-residential buildings. The same 3 data types are provided and you can choose from floor area and number of buildings.
Looking at non-residential permits, a substantial growth is experienced on the Balkan. The only exception is Romania, but, for example in Serbia the permitted floor area is almost 100% above its 2014 level. The biggest countries of EECFA region suffer through, and all this is pretty much supporting the scenarios we have foreshadowed in our reports.
The interactive permit – completion graphs are available here:
While putting together the non-residential figures, I became curious about how the levels are comparable to other European countries. Although some exact matchings have been found, the aim was rather to put the country level market sizes into another context (since we usually contrast them in money terms). The basis of the compilation is permitted non-residential floor area.
UK is not mentioned in this list, but it is most probable (based on the value of new non-residential construction) that its market in terms of floor area is bigger than that of France. However, permit data is not available in UK. The same is true to Russia, so completion is shown here instead. And one final note to the table is that permit generally refers to newly created spaces and rarely accounts information about renovation-like activity.