EECFA has again examined the main changes in the prospects between the Autumn 2020 and Spring 2021 Macro Forecasts of the European Commission for those EECFA member countries which are covered by this forecast; Bulgaria, Croatia, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Slovenia, Turkey, plus Hungary.
Written by Bálint Parragi, EECFA Research, ELTINGA
After a severe recession during last year, the global economy as a whole could grow again in Spring 2021, and it is expected to continue doing so. As the first chart shows, GDP in all countries could recover fast and return to an increasing trajectory.
In Autumn 2020, projections showed the majority of the countries in the EECFA region with a stagnating or very slowly increasing economy. This was mainly due to the composition of the 3-year-average comprising a year with a very deep recession, and the two upcoming years with cautious estimations of growth. The only two economies with growth exceeding 1% were Serbia and Turkey (2.3% and 2% respectively) as these economies shrank least in 2020 (-1.8% and -2.5%).
On the other hand, the results are quite different in the European Commission’s Spring 2021 report where every EECFA country registers a positive GDP growth with all of them being at least 0.5%. The order of countries is almost identical to the one in Autumn 2020 and we can see a grouping of countries:
- The first one is the group of the highest growing two countries, Serbia and Turkey again. This time, Turkey has a higher average growth, though (+3.7% and +2.8% respectively). The significant growth is the result of the slight contraction (or even growth) during 2020 (-1% in Serbia and +1.8% in Turkey).
- The second group consists of countries with a negligible growth according to the Autumn 2020 report (+0.4-+0.7%) but with a more remarkable increase projected in Spring 2021; above 1% in each case and reaching 1.5% in Romania, Hungary, and Slovenia.
- The economies in the last category: Croatia, Russia, together with the EU, all decreased according to the Autumn 2020 report, but in the Spring 2021 report it seems that they have better prospects in the future as they may grow to a little extent (+0.5-+1.1%).
When it comes to total investment (gross fixed capital formation) data, two general conclusions can be drawn:
- Firstly, the projection in Spring 2021 is higher for every country than the Autumn 2020 values. The upward revision is especially remarkable for Turkey, Croatia, and Romania. This again could mean that economic recovery is expected to be a rapid process.
- Secondly, the expected GFCF growth is positive in every country in 2021, except for Russia where it is close to zero. However, the countries are not homogeneous as Romania, Serbia, Turkey, Croatia and Slovenia have an expected growth within 4%-6%, but Hungary, Bulgaria, and Russia, as well as the EU, has a growth smaller than 2% (average of 2020-2021-2022).
Construction investment growth (where available – click the arrow on the chart above) has been revised upward everywhere, but while in Bulgaria it has grown by just 0.4 percentage points, it has multiplied in Hungary, Slovenia and Romania. For the latter, it has even exceeded 8% per annum. Construction’s share in total investment in EECFA countries and Hungary ranges from 55% (Bulgaria) to 64% (Romania), with Hungary and Slovenia in between (62% and 59%, respectively).
All these represents the Commission’s opinion. If you are curious about our opinion on Eastern European construction markets or you need construction forecast on segment level, please consult with the latest EECFA reports. For a sample report and order, visit eecfa.com