EECFA 2021 Winter Construction Forecast – 4th pandemic edition

EECFA’s 2021 Winter Construction Forecast Report was released on 6 December. Full reports can be purchased, and a sample report can be viewed here: www.eecfa.com. EECFA (Eastern European Construction Forecasting Association) conducts research on the construction markets of 8 Eastern-European countries.

We are more optimistic for 2022 in the Southeast European region of EECFA than in the previous forecast round. The drop in 2023 is caused by Bulgaria; the awaited shrinkage is so sizeable there that expansion elsewhere in the region might not counterbalance it. Expansion in the East European region of EECFA is foreseen to be smaller both in 2022 and in 2023 than in the previous forecast round. Growth in Turkey was revised downward.

Link to this viz ->

The largest Southeast European construction market of EECFA, Romania, is expected to see only moderate growth on the horizon. Serbia, having recorded the biggest expansion of almost 100% in the 2014-2020 period, is foreseen to plateau in the upcoming years. In Eastern Europe, in Turkey we maintain to believe that the recovery could start, but we lowered our growth expectation compared to our previous forecast. After 2 years of no-growth, Russia’s construction market is foreseen to expand gradually until 2023.

Bulgaria. The Bulgarian economy is recovering more slowly than expected, and the likely growth rate is 3.8% in 2021. However, residential construction looks strong thanks to low interest rates on housing loans, making home purchase more affordable. Real estate is also the safest and easiest way for those wanting to invest to avoid negative deposit rates. The pandemic and its lasting follow-up effects played an additionally strong cooling effect on non-residential construction because of a surge in office and industrial construction earlier and with an emptying pipeline. Zero progress on big-league infrastructure projects will take its toll on growth in civil engineering construction in 2021, but it is set to catch up in 2022. Total construction output in Bulgaria is anticipated to grow by 6.5% in 2021 and 16.5% in 2022. The lack of preparation for the new programming period 2021-2027 and the National Recovery and Resilience Plan are to negatively affect total construction output which is expected to drop by 24.9% in 2023.

Croatia. Croatia’s tourism season surpassed all expectations, driving a 16.2 percentage point swing in the country’s GDP growth, from -8.1% in 2020 to +8.1% this year, and a one-notch jump in its Fitch rating, to BBB. The near-term future of Croatia’s construction sector now depends greatly on the evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic, particularly its effect on tourism. EU and international financial institution crisis-relief funding will, though, soften any blow that the disease delivers. The City of Zagreb’s budget crisis, bureaucratic delays in spending crisis-relief money and much higher construction costs are other negative factors that will affect the growth of construction output, which must be assessed not for the sector as a whole, but segment by segment (e.g., hotels vs. residential).

Romania. The economy is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels, in terms of GDP, by the end of 2021, after growing 7% in real terms. The European Commission forecasts Romania’s GDP growth rate to stay above the EU average in both 2022 (5.1%) and 2023 (5.2%), and, with the help of the Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF), construction would have a positive ground to grow upon. Total construction output in 2021 is predicted to slightly decline (-0.3%), but to recover and grow in 2022 and 2023. Low interest rates and excess liquidity coalesce into an expanding residential subsector, while non-residential construction continues to be impeded by pandemic-related changes to work habits and various restrictions. On the back of the RRF and the 2014-2020 EU cohesion funds, and despite ongoing difficulties and delays in implementing projects, civil engineering construction continues to have a high potential for growth.

Serbia. After the restrictions in 2020, economic recovery came faster than expected and GDP growth is estimated to reach at least 7.3% in 2021. This strong rebound is supported by accelerated construction activity and increased capital investments, where a high single-digit expansion is projected in 2021 outputs. Construction output is fuelled by civil engineering projects, but also the robust residential and industrial related constructions. Furthermore, budgetary expenditures for investments are planned to reach record levels, with 7.5% of GDP dedicated for this purpose in 2022. All indicators are pointing towards more extensive growth and sustained construction activity at record levels in this forecast horizon.

Slovenia. The Slovenian economy has rebounded stronger than expected after the pandemic. One of the strongest economic growth accelerators was gross fixed capital investment, causing construction output to get back on feet. Total construction output is projected to exceed EUR 4bln sooner than previously predicted – already in 2022 – and reach EUR 4,3bln in 2023. Construction cost growth will probably slow down from a hike in 2021, resulting in a more stable construction environment without supply shocks. This will enable several big civil engineering projects to continue apace, but the main contributor to construction output will be new residential projects. Of course, our forecasts remain contingent on the condition that no further lockdowns hinder the overall economic activity.

Russia. The construction industry in Russia is going through the second year of the pandemic relatively successfully, and the previously expected stagnation in 2021 is likely to turn into a 3.2% growth by the end of the year. This unexpectedly good result was enabled by segments with traditionally active government participation: residential and civil engineering which were supported by large funds. The non-residential subsector also contributed to the growth of the construction market in 2021, mainly due to the massive completion of objects whose construction was previously postponed from 2020. But because all these factors are temporary, construction market growth in 2022 and 2023 will lessen and is prognosticated to post +1.9% and +1.2% per year, respectively, as a part of the potential for the positive dynamics was already exhausted in 2021.

Turkey. The Turkish economy started to regain senses from the pandemic blow in Q3 2020, which continued with high GDP growth in Q2 2021. Although Turkey removed most COVID-19 related restrictions on 1 June 2020 with the elevated number of vaccinations, now, like across Europe, the fourth wave of the pandemic has started (yet with relatively fewer new cases). The estimated economic growth rate by end 2021 is about 10%, but the primary concern in recent months has been high inflation caused by the national currency’s devaluation. Building starts expanded greatly, but completions registered a small drop in the first 9 months of 2021. The government requires interest rates (also for mortgages) to be kept at less than half of the rate of rise in building construction cost. Keeping real incomes positive during high inflation times is important for demand for commodities like housing and other real estates. Turkey’s total construction output is prognosticated to be positive in the forecast horizon with an average growth of 2.6% up to 2023.

Ukraine. For the construction sector in Ukraine, 2021 marks the year of completion of the construction regulation reform launched back in 2019. In mid-September, the newly created State Inspectorate for Architecture and Urban Planning began to work as a full-fledged new body with its own structure, powers, and new work principles. Ukraine’s construction market in H2 2021 has showed a good recovery in investment activity and the resumption of construction. The residential subsector remains the driver of the construction sector due to stable demand from the population. The main constraint in the development of the construction market in 2021 has been increased construction costs despite the active implementation of residential projects against the backdrop of the revival of mortgage lending, increased demand from the manufacturing sector, as well as high volumes of financing.

EECFA countries in the European Commission’s 2021 Macro Forecast

EECFA has again examined the main changes in the prospects between the Autumn 2020 and Spring 2021 Macro Forecasts of the European Commission for those EECFA member countries which are covered by this forecast; Bulgaria, Croatia, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Slovenia, Turkey, plus Hungary.

Written by Bálint Parragi, EECFA Research, ELTINGA

After a severe recession during last year, the global economy as a whole could grow again in Spring 2021, and it is expected to continue doing so. As the first chart shows, GDP in all countries could recover fast and return to an increasing trajectory.

In Autumn 2020, projections showed the majority of the countries in the EECFA region with a stagnating or very slowly increasing economy. This was mainly due to the composition of the 3-year-average comprising a year with a very deep recession, and the two upcoming years with cautious estimations of growth. The only two economies with growth exceeding 1% were Serbia and Turkey (2.3% and 2% respectively) as these economies shrank least in 2020 (-1.8% and -2.5%).

On the other hand, the results are quite different in the European Commission’s Spring 2021 report where every EECFA country registers a positive GDP growth with all of them being at least 0.5%. The order of countries is almost identical to the one in Autumn 2020 and we can see a grouping of countries:

  • The first one is the group of the highest growing two countries, Serbia and Turkey again. This time, Turkey has a higher average growth, though (+3.7% and +2.8% respectively). The significant growth is the result of the slight contraction (or even growth) during 2020 (-1% in Serbia and +1.8% in Turkey).
  • The second group consists of countries with a negligible growth according to the Autumn 2020 report (+0.4-+0.7%) but with a more remarkable increase projected in Spring 2021; above 1% in each case and reaching 1.5% in Romania, Hungary, and Slovenia.
  • The economies in the last category: Croatia, Russia, together with the EU, all decreased according to the Autumn 2020 report, but in the Spring 2021 report it seems that they have better prospects in the future as they may grow to a little extent (+0.5-+1.1%).

When it comes to total investment (gross fixed capital formation) data, two general conclusions can be drawn:

  • Firstly, the projection in Spring 2021 is higher for every country than the Autumn 2020 values. The upward revision is especially remarkable for Turkey, Croatia, and Romania. This again could mean that economic recovery is expected to be a rapid process.
  • Secondly, the expected GFCF growth is positive in every country in 2021, except for Russia where it is close to zero. However, the countries are not homogeneous as Romania, Serbia, Turkey, Croatia and Slovenia have an expected growth within 4%-6%, but Hungary, Bulgaria, and Russia, as well as the EU, has a growth smaller than 2% (average of 2020-2021-2022).

Construction investment growth (where available – click the arrow on the chart above) has been revised upward everywhere, but while in Bulgaria it has grown by just 0.4 percentage points, it has multiplied in Hungary, Slovenia and Romania. For the latter, it has even exceeded 8% per annum. Construction’s share in total investment in EECFA countries and Hungary ranges from 55% (Bulgaria) to 64% (Romania), with Hungary and Slovenia in between (62% and 59%, respectively).

All these represents the Commission’s opinion. If you are curious about our opinion on Eastern European construction markets or you need construction forecast on segment level, please consult with the latest EECFA reports. For a sample report and order, visit eecfa.com

EECFA 2021 Summer Construction Forecast – 3rd Pandemic edition

EECFA’s 2021 Summer Construction Forecast Report up to 2023 was released on 28 June. Full reports can be ordered here. EECFA (Eastern European Construction Forecasting Association) conducts research on the construction markets of 8 Eastern-European countries.

Southeast Europe

In the first year of the pandemic the construction market of the SEE region as a whole remained in the positive, and further expansion is expected until 2023. The only exception is Bulgaria where a harsh transition is foreseen for 2023 when the 2014-2020 EU programming period ends financially. The massive growth experienced in the years before 2020 is not anticipated to return; around 3% growth is projected for 2021 and 2022, and a 3% drop for 2023. The countries with the largest cumulated growth on the forecast horizon are Croatia and Serbia.

Bulgaria. After a drop of 4.2% in 2020, the European Commission (EC) forecasts the economy to rebound by the end of 2021 and to grow by 3.5%. Positive economic outlook, combined with low interest rates on home loans, will result in more affordable homes. But increased savings and zero deposit rates raise speculative investments in residential, pushing home prices up. Non-residential construction was expected to decelerate even before the pandemic, but the Covid-19 crisis has accelerated this process. Civil engineering is backed by advancing EU fund absorption and by 2027 will be given new opportunities. After an estimated drop in total construction in 2020 by 1.3% in Bulgaria, 2021 and 2022 are expected to see a growth of 9.2% and 12%, respectively. But a considerable drop of 24% is prognosticated in construction output in 2023 due to the slow preparation for the next programming period and the National Recovery and Resilience Plan.

Croatia. We are significantly more optimistic about output growth in a number of Croatian construction sectors than in our last report. Assistance from the EU and international financial institutions blunted the edge of the three catastrophes that struck Croatia in 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic and the Zagreb and Sisak-Maslovina earthquakes. For most (but not all) sectors, it appears that the catastrophes will not greatly change the drivers of output growth over the medium to long term, although they will have some short-term consequences. The three-year hiatus until the next elections in Croatia and the recent election of a reformist mayor in Zagreb, Croatia’s economic powerhouse, provide openings for spurring Croatia’s economic growth and so construction output, but it is not clear that they will be utilized.

Romania. The economic impact of Covid-19 has been less than initially feared. Investment into construction grew strongly in 2020, preventing GDP from a larger drop, and we expect investment to continue in the following years thanks to the RRF. Recovery is also to be quicker than previously forecasted: the EC forecasts a GDP growth of 5.1% for 2022 and 4.9% for 2023. EECFA’s forecast for 2021 and 2022 in construction output is a small contraction (-0.7% and -0.2%) with growth returning in 2023 with 2.6%. Last year residential developers focused on finishing as many projects as possible as there were concerns of a potential market downturn. It didn’t happen, but the new supply to be delivered in the next years could push prices down under normal market conditions.

Serbia. In 2021 things are getting back to normal with the economy standing strong and having already surpassed pre-pandemic levels. Serbia’s economy was one of the least affected in Europe with GDP contracting just 1% last year, and an expected real growth of around 6.5% this year. Recovery is visible in almost all economic segments except for some service sectors still struggling to reach 2019 levels. Serbia’s weaker exposure to tourism and related services moderated losses during the pandemic, and investment stayed strong in both 2020 and 2021. In addition, the government increased public investments in infrastructure and civil engineering projects. Demand in Europe is also recovering, orders are growing again, and with tourism on the rise as well, there is a lot of reason for optimism in the coming period.

Slovenia. Construction industry and the economy in general was less disrupted by the pandemic than originally expected. While GDP decreased by 5.5% in 2020, it is expected to rebound strongly in 2021. Total construction output stayed at almost exactly the same level in 2020 as in 2019: EUR 3.4bln; and it is prognosticated to increase strongly in 2021 and 2022, and exceed EUR 4.1bln in 2023, for the first time since 2008. An interesting recent development though has been the rise in construction costs in 2021 resulting from high demand and supply disruptions owing to the pandemic and its economic aftermath. However, we estimate that this increase in construction cost will be temporary and will decelerate after 2022.

East Europe

The worst performer in 2020 in the Eastern region of EECFA was Turkey, but the downtrend here started well before the pandemic struck. As recovery is awaited to start this year in Turkey, the region as a whole could turn to positive in 2021. Expansion is our current scenario for the region with 9% cumulated real growth until 2023. The largest cumulated market growth on the horizon, thanks to the relatively low starting point, could happen in Turkey.

Russia. The economy is coping with the effects of the pandemic relatively well. GDP contraction last year turned out to be less serious than anticipated with one reason being the stability of the construction sector that showed high resilience to the crisis on the back of active government support for the entire industry, the implementation of many transport and energy projects, and measures to support demand for homes. Construction output shrank by 0.9% in 2020 (against the previously expected drop of about 5%-6%). In the short term, the decline is most likely to slow down to 0.3% in 2021 with a transition to active growth in 2022-2023 within 3.9%-3.4% per year, respectively. Optimism for the next two years stems from the expected recovery in housing construction and the continued infrastructure projects in civil engineering.

Turkey. The economy is showing a rebound after the pandemic. The recent months have seen positive rates of change in GDP, industrial production, value added of construction sector, building starts, and completions. However, a weak Turkish Lira against foreign currencies continues to cause inflationary problems to the economy. Producer prices, construction costs and mortgage interest rates have been increasing at rates close to the rise in exchange rates. The government may again adopt the policy of requiring the three state-owned banks to offer preferential mortgage loans. Total construction output in Turkey is estimated to have slumped by 6.9% last year, but this year growth might return averaging roughly +4% all the way through the forecast horizon.

Ukraine. Last year the construction market was marked by the impact of Covid-19 along with internal problems such as the reform of the State Architectural and Construction Inspection, primarily affecting housing construction. On a positive note, the president launched the Big Construction scheme in March 2020 to support construction industry, so we estimate the overall decline to be 2.2%. And although the recession has reduced the investment flow in construction this year, it has increased demand for some commercial segments such as logistics and co-working offices. As the Big Construction scheme will have sufficient funds for this year as well, it gives cause for optimism for now, and Ukraine’s construction market is forecasted to register growth across the board. 

____________

Source of data: EECFA Construction Forecast Report, 2021 Summer

Contact information: www.eecfa.com, info@eecfa.com

EECFA 2020 Winter Construction Forecast – 2nd Pandemic edition

The 2020 Winter EECFA Construction Forecast Report was released on 8 December. Full reports can be purchased, and a sample report can be viewed at www.eecfa.com. EECFA (Eastern European Construction Forecasting Association) conducts research on the construction markets of 8 Eastern-European countries.

Southeast Europe

Building construction markets of the Balkan EECFA countries as a whole have shown resistance during the pandemic so far. Nonetheless the region is foreseen to have yet another negative year in 2021, before expansion can return in 2022. As the current EU programming period is nearing its end, civil engineering is expected to be the driving force in the upcoming period, well outperforming building construction. The total construction market is projected to side move in 2021, and 2022 could bring a growth of around 4%. Based on its priorities, the NextGenerationEU recovery fund is also supportive for both building construction and the civil engineering sub-markets. Its specifics (for what and when) on country level are yet unknown, though.

Bulgaria. The expected economic recovery should bring the Bulgarian economy back to pre-crisis levels by end 2022 with both exports and consumption contributing positively. Having it in mind, the future of residential construction remains positive despite the economic uncertainty. In short term, purchasing power should be affected, but in general, demand for new housing projects in big cities should remain. Non-residential construction will also be held back by dropping demand for commercial and hotel projects, and the projected slow and uneven economic recovery. Civil engineering in the future should be driven by EU funding as well as by the national budget. After major growth in total construction output in 2019 (+19%), 2020 will likely see a drop of 4.9%. Approaching the end of the programming period in 2021 and 2022, total construction will likely increase by 4.4% and 5.2%, respectably, in real terms.

Croatia. The effects of COVID-19 and the Zagreb earthquake on the Croatian construction industry will vary greatly from sector to sector. Thanks to swift, massive EU financial assistance, some sectors will even benefit from the disasters. These sectors include civil engineering generally and especially those CE sectors in which projects can be implemented rapidly. For buildings sectors, results are mixed. Some were harshly battered and will take years to recover. Others barely felt the catastrophes’ consequences. With few exceptions, the trends that underlay buildings sectors’ growth before these events will remain the primary drivers of buildings output in the medium and long run. In the short term, disaster-relief spending will benefit some.

Romania. Pandemic impact on construction was felt less strongly in 2020 since ongoing projects were not halted and thus the market slightly grew (3.8%). With the entire economy taking a few years to recover after the 2020 crisis, total construction output in Romania should drop in 2021 (-2%) and start recovering in 2022 (+2.8%). The pandemic will water down the housing subsector next year as fewer-than-expected new projects began this year and the recession should also continue to reduce purchasing power. In non-residential, retail and hotel were battered most. Office construction is in hiatus due to lower demand for new construction with the expansion of work-at-home scheme and with businesses rethinking the use of traditional offices. The drop in international trade set back industrial construction, but as borders open and exports start picking up, recovery may come too. Civil engineering is the brightest spot with an estimated growth in government investment as 60% of the EU funding for infrastructure is still unspent from the 2014-2020 budget.

Serbia. The developments in 2020 are marked by the reoccurring pandemic and during the year, movement restrictions were introduced twice, having a very negative effect on all service sectors. Furthermore, it is now certain that pandemic effects are to extend into 2021 and the best-case scenario means the economy will take the entire 2021 to recover. With still large uncertainty looming for next year, the forecast still carries a lot “ifs” and the government spent over 10% of GDP for various stimulus measures aiming to mitigate the effects of the interruptions. While the recovery in the second half of 2020 was strong, the new restrictions in October and December again impacted developments and stopped the normalization. Luckily, the realization of big public infrastructure projects has been steady and growing, which has helped growth in construction outputs, and private investments are still not subsiding. Strong credit activity and market fundamentals are also supporting recovery, but lingering foreign demand and slow recovery in the service sectors continue to dim the prospects.

Slovenia. Construction industry was less disrupted by COVID-19 that some were fearing. Even though construction output is estimated to have dropped by 4.8% this year, it will likely rebound next year close to the 2019 level and should expand further in 2022 on the back of civil engineering where big projects are continuing apace. The Second Railway Track to Port Koper, the Third Axis Road construction and the Karavanke Tunnel expansion all continued in 2020 and were less disrupted by the lockdown than expected. Non-residential construction, on the other hand, will suffer from the lingering effects of the economic slowdown caused by the pandemic and the consequent lower investment in industrial and commercial segments. Similarly, residential construction is subdued for the time being due to the pandemic but may return to growth path towards the end of the forecast horizon based on historically low interest rates and good availability of credit financing.

East Europe

Dragged down by Turkey, the decline in buildings construction started in the Eastern region of EECFA as a whole well before the pandemic struck. And 2020 is also expected to see a negative year. From 2021 on recovery could start, but the level of 2018 is not projected to be reached on the forecast horizon. The civil engineering submarket of the region also contracted massively already in 2019 and further decline is our scenario for this year. From 2021 on this submarket could turn to positive and we are optimistic for 2022 as well. Total construction market of the Eastern region is forecast to grow by around 3% in each of the upcoming 2 years.

Russia. This year has seen several negative factors blasting construction industry in Russia, and the economy, such as falling oil prices, the devaluation of the rouble at the beginning of the year, and the pandemic with its related lockdown and restrictions. This caused a massive decline in real incomes, a deterioration in investment climate and a downturn in business activity. One way or the other almost all construction segments felt the pain and decline in total construction by end 2020 is to be 5.8%. It is better than our summer 2020 predictions, though; the government’s economic recovery plan turned out to be quite effective and allowed us to slightly improve our forecast. Return to growth in construction is possible already in 2021 (+0.3%), and by end 2022 a much more confident positive dynamics (+4.1%) is expected based on the likely recovery trends in all segments on the back of state support and the launch of big infrastructure projects.

Turkey. The economy was marred during the 3 months after COVID-19 appeared on 11 March in Turkey. Anti-COVID measures put in place caused massive declines in industrial production, including construction, and in GDP. Lifting most measures and introducing a subsidy offering soft loans by the three state-owned banks on 1 June 2020 served as an important stimulus for the economy and the construction sector. Together with a historical peak in housing transactions in July 2020, building starts began to grow, although there is a big backlog of construction in almost every sector. Rising inflation and construction costs owing to the depreciation of the Turkish Lira against foreign currencies would be the primary concern for the construction sector in 2021.

Ukraine. Construction this year showed a negative trend compared to last year. After a relative growth in Q1 2020, there was a significant dip in Q2, followed by a gradual recovery in Q3-Q4. Nominally, at end Q3 construction reached last year’s indicators in the volume of works performed, but with inflation considered, the drop is still 2%. In the same period last year, construction showed a rise of 23.5%. Key negative factors this year are the COVID-19 crisis and the reform of the State Architectural and Construction Inspectorate that started almost simultaneously with the lockdown in early spring. As a result of falling population incomes and complications in obtaining construction permit, the volume of housing construction slumped. Civil engineering fared well thanks to a state program and the redirection of part of the money from the Covid Fund into the subsector.

____________

Source of data: EECFA Construction Forecast Report, 2020 Winter

A visual summary to Euroconstruct Special Update August 2020

by János Gáspár – Buildecon, Hungarian member to Euroconstruct

In most countries the stories after the August revision remained pretty similar to those Euroconstruct forecast in June. Charts below are organized by region, the dotted black line represents the 2019 level. At Europe’ heartland and in the Nordic countries (in the top row) there are very stable markets. Except for Finland and Sweden, each of them foresees the total market in 2021 to be around the level of 2019. Out of the largest countries, the most sluggish recovery could be in the Netherlands, in the UK and in Spain. Poland seems to be crisis-resistant.

>> CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL VISUAL SUMMARY

EECFA 2020 Summer Construction Forecast – Pandemic edition

The 2020 Summer EECFA Construction Forecast Report was released on 29 June. It can be purchased, and a sample report can be viewed at www.eecfa.com. EECFA (Eastern European Construction Forecasting Association) conducts research on the construction markets of 8 Eastern-European countries.

Southeast Europe

Construction in the ‘small countries’ of EECFA (Bulgaria, Croatia, Romania Serbia, Slovenia) will be bruised by the pandemic effects this year, causing a drop in construction outputs. The two exceptions are Croatia and Bulgaria where civil engineering could compensate for the losses in building construction. Already in 2021, we are likely to see positive growth rates in all 5 countries.

Bulgaria. Although there was no ban on construction works during the two-month state of emergency in Bulgaria, construction output growth will be hampered by the COVID-19 crisis. The economic uncertainty and rising unemployment are expected to hold back real income growth, which will mainly affect the property market. The growth driver in 2021 is set to be the completion of many large-scale office buildings, while industrial and warehousing construction is also to contribute positively. Output in civil engineering will be driven by road and public utility constructions where EU funds play a major role. The energy sector will also have a net positive impact because of the ongoing works of the Bulgarian part of ‘Turkstream’ in 2020 and 2021. Thus, total construction output in Bulgaria is to remain almost unchanged in 2020 (+0.3%) while in 2021 it is set to grow by 9.2%.

Croatia. COVID-19 and the Zagreb earthquake have dramatically weakened the short-term outlook for most building construction in Croatia. Civil engineering, though, will remain relatively unscathed. For buildings, COVID-19 has greatly affected both supply and demand for construction services, while the Zagreb earthquake has primarily influenced demand, in some subsectors in less than straightforward ways. Civil engineering as a whole remains strong despite the pandemic and the earthquake, but demand will vary considerably from subsector to subsector. Croatia’s July 5 elections will significantly influence the country’s policy responses to the problems it faces, but no matter who wins, the consequences of the two crises will affect the country’s construction sector for years to come.

Romania. All segments of the Romanian construction market have been impacted, in one way or another, by the pandemic and the measures taken to mitigate it. Like the rest of the EU, Romania is passing through a recession, with GDP and public consumption dropping significantly in 2020. Recovery is expected for 2021, but Romania’s bounce-back might be slower than the EU-average, since there is a lack of infrastructure and public funding availability. New residential construction is predicted to perform worse than previously expected in both 2020 and 2021 due to lower demand. The non-residential subsector is also forecasted to have a rough couple of years, with companies rethinking their office needs and retail consumption trends shifting. In addition to the recession, low efficiency in EU funding absorption is also holding back civil engineering. Overall, we predict construction activity in Romania to suffer a 2.1% decline in 2020, but to recover slightly in 2021, as the economy stabilizes.

Serbia. The beginning of the year was exceptionally strong for all subsectors, announcing another year of steaming outputs, but it was broken by the pandemic state of emergency and movement restrictions in April 2020. The fact that Serbia had a lockdown in the midst of an economic and construction recovery will make it one of the more resilient economies as fast recovery is expected. On the other hand, this extraordinary event will definitely affect the overall result in 2020, with still uncertain severity. After restrictions were cancelled, rebound followed on both residential and commercial markets. Home transactions had a stellar recovery in May, and the retail segment also reports pre-crisis turnovers in June. The good news is that none of the planned projects was cancelled, while several large land transactions in May 2020 announce investments will go forward. What scenario will play out still depends on the epilogue of this crisis and the eventual follow-up events during the course of this year.    

Slovenia. Construction industry in 2020 and 2021 will be characterized by the short-term disruption resulting from COVID-19, and a more favourable long-term demand for construction services. The former itself, due to a 3-month long lockdown, could potentially decrease construction works by more than 10% in 2020, but anti-crisis measures, including a boost to civil-engineering construction, will be supportive. The forecasted decline in construction output in 2020 is thus 5,5%. Several big projects that started shortly before the onset of the pandemic have resumed after the lockdown such as the construction of the Second Railway Track to Port Koper and the Third Axis Road. These and a major raise in public housing (mostly in Ljubljana) should lead to a total construction output rise of 2,6% in 2021. In such a scenario, construction output will not decrease below EUR 3 billion in either 2020 or 2021, and might even act as a stabilizer for the country’s overall economic activity in contrast to the financial crisis of 2008 when a depression in construction activity represented a drag on economic development for almost a full decade.

East Europe

The ‘big countries’ of EECFA (Russia, Turkey, Ukraine) are also set to be hammered by the pandemic effects this year. Worsened by the underlying economic problems in these countries, they will likely register far bigger slumps in their construction output in 2020 than the ‘small countries’ of EECFA. But growth could return next year in Turkey and Ukraine, whereas Russia could experience a slight decline still.

Russia. The volume of construction market in 2019 is expected to have exhibited a minimal negative correction (-0.2%) due to the high base in 2018, and the decline in civil engineering caused by the completion of many big-league projects. 2020 is to see a considerable drop in construction (-7.4%) owing to a set of negative factors that the economy is battered by: falling oil prices, nosediving ruble exchange rates, as well as the subsequent COVID-19 pandemic and the long-lasting lockdown. All this has led to an economic crisis that will be felt throughout 2020-2021 and is to cause a recession in all segments of the construction market, except for strategically important ones such as infrastructure, healthcare and agriculture-related constructions. In 2021, due to the expected recovery trends in some segments of non-residential and civil engineering construction, the rate of decline will likely be noticeably slower, but the general negative dynamics will likely continue and the construction market is predicted to post a decrease by another 0.5%.

Turkey. The economy was in the process of recovering in early 2020 but had to confront with the COVID-19 problem from mid-March on, after the first positive case was diagnosed. To deal with it, the Government had to allocate big sums of money, which inevitably reduced funds to be used for projects. Precautionary measures for the pandemic and the falling exchange rate of the Turkish Lira against the Euro (by 13,65% between January-June 2020) caused declines in demand for many goods and services, including real estate. Incentives such as mortgage loans by state-owned banks for home buyers under market interest rates and at 90% loan-to-value ratio have become very effective: granted loans reached about 101,000 in the first four weeks of June. Building construction permits registered a historical peak in 2017, but massive drops in the next two years, which continues with a mild fall in Q1 2020. Completions, however, did not decrease in the same way as starts until Q1 2020, mainly because there are big backlogs of construction in every segment, except for wholesale and retail trade buildings. For this reason, building occupancy permits are set to continue to remain higher than construction permits during the following years. Nonetheless, we foresee further market contraction this year. Recovery could start in 2021.

Ukraine. Over the past four years, construction market of Ukraine was on a recovery path, but the pandemic and the consequent economic crisis dramatically worsened construction trends and expectations in the country. Current indicators of the volume of capital investments and a drop in construction volumes suggest a slump in the construction market. Under such conditions, state support and bank lending would remain a reliable means for the construction market, but developers stopped borrowing during the lockdown, and bankers predict a great decrease in business lending. Future construction trends will largely depend on the dynamics of the economic recovery. The government’s economic recovery program contains no targeted measures to support the construction industry or mortgage lending, leaving builders alone in the fight against the crisis. Residential market is expected to shrink most in 2020 and each sub-sector is foreseen to come back in 2021.

Source of data: EECFA Construction Forecast Report, 2020 Summer

EECFA 2019 Winter Construction Forecast

The 2019 Winter EECFA Construction Forecast Report has been released. It can be purchased, and a sample report can be viewed at www.eecfa.com. EECFA (Eastern European Construction Forecasting Association) conducts research on the construction markets of 8 Eastern-European countries.

Southeast Europe

Building construction market of the Balkan countries of EECFA is in prosperity phase. In the 2016-2019 period the market size expanded by 30%. We think that the current cycle is getting closer to the peak and for the upcoming 2 years we foresee a deceleration. One extreme is Serbia’s building construction market. It well outperformed the rest of the countries in the past 4 years and hardly sees any further expansion. As we are getting closer to the end of the current EU programming period, the civil engineering submarket is projected to contribute more positively to total construction market growth.

Bulgaria. Construction output in Bulgaria continues its recovery as both building and civil constructions are contributing. Residential construction is boosted by increasing real wages and low interest rates on housing loans which make buying a home more and more affordable. Persistent demand for contemporary office premises, along with the ongoing expansion of industrial and warehousing projects, will likely continue to be a tailwind for non-residential construction in 2019-2021. Civil engineering construction is forecasted to continue its upward trend in line with EU fund absorption. Growth here in the upcoming years will be fuelled by large transport infrastructure projects and the public utility sector. Total construction output is set to grow by 8.7% in 2019, and to add another 6.5% in both 2020 and 2021.

Croatia. Construction in Croatia is in transition. Some sectors are reaching the limits of catch-up growth. Others are only now beginning to benefit from it. While the direction and inevitability of this transition is clear, the timing is less so, with each sector likely to follow its own, unique path. This said, certain factors, among them emigration, the slowness of key reforms (especially regarding the judiciary), rising construction costs, the government’s ability to secure EU and other official funds and increased international competition for the tourists on which, for better or worse, Croatia’s economy relies, will affect all construction sectors. The outlook is by no means grim. Croatia is not nearly done with its transition, certainly not as far as construction is concerned. Many opportunities remain.

Romania. Romania’s construction subsectors have seen different trends. Residential and non-residential have been on a growth path for several years, while civil engineering has been declining since 2015. Residential construction should remain the main contributor to growth in the forecast period on the back of increased income and high demand for new construction, though regulatory and tax changes have slowed down the subsector. Romania’s economic growth, one of the strongest in the EU, and increased public consumption are feeding the need for new non-residential construction; however, increased skilled labour shortages and costs keep the segment in check, hindering development. For civil engineering, increased construction costs, elections and government changes counter much of the potential growth. Overall, construction across Romania is predicted to expand by 6.4% in 2019 but switch to a lower gear in both 2020 and 2021.

Continue reading EECFA 2019 Winter Construction Forecast

How Croatia’s government policies are impacting the country’s construction sector

Written by Michael Glazer (SEE Regional Advisors) and Tatjana Halapija (Nada Projekt), EECFA’s Croatian members

Croatia will at the turn of the year assume the rotating presidency of the Council of the European Union. So now is an appropriate time to assess how the Croatian government’s policies affect the country’s construction sector.

Source: Depositphotos

The government’s preparations for the presidency don’t inspire confidence that its influence is a positive one: the remodeling of the main building for the presidency won’t be completed until December 22, leaving no room for (further) delays. And there are concerns that the “finished” building won’t in fact provide satisfactory facilities. Not to mention the project’s being at least 50% over budget.

On the other hand, the current government has substantially increased Croatia’s absorption rate for EU funds. At 78% it is now slightly higher than the EU average of 77% and significantly greater than the country’s below-EU-average 2018 rate of 52%. This improved performance has enabled Croatia to invest massive amounts in infrastructure. And while, bureaucratic delays have meant that end users have received only 25% of the amounts they contracted for, much less than the 33% EU average, there is a real likelihood of even more rapid EU funds absorption in Croatia.

First, use-it-or-lose-it rules governing these moneys mean that contracts relying on them must be entered into before year-end 2020. Second, and crucially, presidential and parliamentary elections are coming up next year, by January 20 in the case of the president and by December 23 in the case of the parliament. Parliamentary elections, though, could be triggered far earlier if any of the minority members of the current, fragile coalition withdraws its support.

Continue reading How Croatia’s government policies are impacting the country’s construction sector

Turkish Construction Sector Seeking Ways to Reverse the Slump

Written by Prof. Dr. Ali TUREL, EECFA Turkey

Turkish construction is in crisis in more fronts. High interest rates due to high inflation cloud the situation of construction players. As well as this, high negative real housing price changes with real construction costs being in positive numbers are creating adverse market conditions for housebuilders. Construction companies active in civil engineering have decreasing workloads due to the October 2018 presidential decree not to tender new projects except for priority ones and due to the reduced available central and local budgets for projects this year. The construction sector in Turkey is seeking ways to come out of this crunch.

The Bosphorus Strait, Istanbul, Turkey – Source: Buildecon

 

How it all started

The colossal devaluation of the Turkish Lira, having started in November 2016, shook Turkey’s construction industry in August 2018. Even though construction costs and interest rates increased against the backdrop of rising exchange rates in 2017, there were exceptional historical peaks in construction and occupancy permits that year. The crisis hit in 2018 with construction permits in floor areas being almost half of the permits of 2017. Occupancy permits went up by 5% in floor areas though, due to the large backlogs of construction in almost every sector. Housing sales also climbed 5% and amounted to 1,409 million by end 2018.

Trends similar to 2018 in building construction and occupancy permits in floor areas continued in the first quarter of 2019 with a 37.7% shrinkage in construction permits and a 29.4% rise in occupancy permits. Annual rate of change in the Building Construction Cost Index decreased from 28.11% in January 2019 to 25.45% in May 2019. Since rates of change in Consumer Price Index were 20.35% and 18.71%, respectively, real rises in building construction cost in the same two months were a respective 6.4% and 5.7%.

Civil engineering projects have been battered by the presidential decree issued in October 2018 requiring all ministries not to tender new projects except for priority ones, on the one hand, and by the lower allocated budget for projects to central and local governments in 2019 than in the previous year, on the other. TUIK, the Turkish Statistical Institute, calculated a 10.9% drop in construction sector in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the Chain Linked Volume Index in the first quarter of 2019 against the same period of 2018. 

Feeling the pinch

Construction industry in Turkey is much concerned with the changes in housing prices and sales since about three quarters of building permits in Turkey are for house building. National average of the annual change in the Housing Price Index accounted for 3.60% in January 2019 and 1.57% in May 2019, implying that real annual changes in housing prices in these months were -13,9% and -14,4%, respectively. High negative real housing price changes when real construction costs are in positive numbers are unfavourable market conditions for housebuilders. Furthermore, decreasing housing sales, by 21.7% in the first 6 months of 2019 and 48.6% in June 2019 compared to the same time periods of 2018, create additional strains in the housing market.

Continue reading Turkish Construction Sector Seeking Ways to Reverse the Slump